Good time for a squeeze play?

[A_PLUS]

UB 9.5K garunteed. Still early (40 minutes in), plenty of players left. Blinds 20/40. Due to MP+1 and another table LAG, I have been tighter than usual hoping to trap them with a good hand.

MP+1 is a complete over aggressive Donk. He has seen 50% ofthe flops so far, raising (bet pot button) every unopened pot from MP on. He has folded to a few reraises preflop.

CO is aggressive, but good. Looks like a thinking player.

Pre-flop: 3 fold, MP+1 (2350) raises to 140 (bet pot button),CO (2870) calls, Hero [Ac 9s](1655) raises to 580, UG+1 folds, CO calls.

Flop (board: 2h 2d 5d)

Hero?


I think that CO would have made this call with hands like KQs, QJs, AJs, 66-JJ. He was getting good pot odds and position against a tight player.

[Sam T.]

Are you in the blinds here? If so, I'm not sure I like it. Part of what makes the squeeze play so powerful, is that you have taken control of the hand, and because you have position, you are going to keep it for the rest of the betting. From the blinds, yeeks, you're creating a huge pot that you then have to play out of position. No, sir, I don't like it. I don't like it at all. (Also, don't think that anyone at the table sees you as playing tight. Odds are they're just not paying that close attention.)

As it stands, you have two choices. Push, and hope he's not on 99, or check-fold, 'cause you got nothing. (I guess if he donk bet the flop, you could try an all-in check-raise, but that's assuming he can find the fold button, which isn't a given.) Position, baby, position.

Sam

[locutus2002]

I don't think its a good time for a squeeze play because:

I might be a little concerned that CO is trapping MP+1

A-9 is not going to play well after the flop so I think a push is better than a raise and looks more transparently like a steal. (more likely to get called). By not well after the flop I mean that hero will have to follow with a continuation bet giving CO some pretty good implied odds to call the PF raise.

A Bunch of CO's range has you dominated.

[luvrhino]

I assume that you're BB?

Regardless, i'm folding this PF. If the CO hadn't CC'd, i might consider re-raising the "complete over aggressive Donk" (whom i assume is the person who folded after your PF bet). However, given that it's early and you have over 40xBB, there's no reason to get involved here since the CO clearly has a hand and he'll have position on you if you can't get him to fold PF. Sure, picking up the 300 chips in the pot had your raise worked would have been nice, but with trappable LAGs at your table, there should be better spots if you're patient. Now you have over one third of your stack committed and you're in trouble.

Anyway, once the Flop came, you have to decide what to do. You don't have enough to check-raise or to make a large enough bet to make him fold unless you send you're willing to go with your whole stack. If you bet 500 or so and he raises you All-in, you pretty much have to call.

The alternative is to check-and-fold having been caught stealing. That way, you're left with 27xBB and you should have plenty of time to come back.

If you have other profitable ways to spend your time or you think that you're an average or worse player, go All-in. This bet would be consistent with you having a non-AA/KK overpair and wanting to take the pot down now. If he has only overcards, he'll fold. If he has a pocket pair of his own, you likely have 3 or 6 outs.

If you want to maximize returns in this tournament and feel you're a superior player, give it up. If he checks behind you on the Flop, then i'd probably go after it on the Turn.

[Dan Rutter]

This is a tough situation. I calculate there is around $1320 in the pot with you having $1075. Does the CO have the image of you possibly checking this flop with a big overpair? Do you think the CO is someone who may have just called MP+1 with a big pocket pair? Then when you raise and MP+1 folds he decides to continue his slowplay? If you choose to bet this flop you are going to be committed to the hand. You will need to bet at least around $500 on this pot to have a shot at taking it down, and if goes all-in after this bet you will be getting a around 5 to 1. Those odds will be good enough if he has a pair under 9s. I say your choices are between checking and folding, or pushing all-in on this flop and hope he folds. I think I would probably push. Primarily because my odds would not be that really terrible if he has a pair 6s-8s. With 9s-Js he may have raised the loose MP+1 PF. If he has QQ KK or AA I would realize I have been outplayed. And hopefully he has high suited connectors and folds.

[A_PLUS]

Sorry, I was in the SB. I wasnt playing this hand for value. I was on a steal. The fact that I had A9, was just a bonus. Their was a very real possibility that the C.O. was trapping, but the donk had been showing down hands like A3o, K7s, etc when he opened pots, so I doubted that the CO would CC with TT-QQ (CO was a good observant player, from what I had seen in this MTT, as well as my notes on him).

I did have 40xBB, but there was only 20 minutes (20-30 hands) until the break, where the blinds are 50-100 when we return. I am not the type that likes to wait until I am desperate to make a move, in UB tournaments, having a good stack for the 2nd hour is huge for 2 reasons. The blinds become an issue for 30% of the field, so you can bully liberally, and you can snap off some weak weak all-ins.

Basically, the fact that I have 40xBB, means nothing. Either this move will win me chips or lose me chips, my relative position now doesnt prevent me from making a move.

As for the flop. I do not like the open push. It looks too much like a missed AK, or flush draw. I have a thinking opponent, I assume he will pick up on this.

[Sluss]

Granted I still don't have my HOH 2 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] but...

My understanding of the squeaze play would be if a player like the CO raised, a player like MP+1 called and then Hero pushes and or big re-raises. CO figures he is dead against two hands because he is a thinking player and mucks. LAGy MP+1 folds because he had crap in the first place.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted I still don't have my HOH 2 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] but...

My understanding of the squeaze play would be if a player like the CO raised, a player like MP+1 called and then Hero pushes and or big re-raises. CO figures he is dead against two hands because he is a thinking player and mucks. LAGy MP+1 folds because he had crap in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse that. MP+1 bets b/c thats what Lags do, CO calls with what is most likely to be a marginal hand (he thinks is probably better than Lag. You raise. Lag folds b/c with two players showing strength, he figures his hand is no good. CO folds, b/c his hand was good against a Lag (no good enough to raise though), and you are a solid player who has shown a lot of strength.

[11t]

If he checks your only reasonable bet due to the pot size is dumping your stack so it won't look like a buy.

So dump your stack.

EDIT: Apparently you we're in the SB instead of the button. I'd bet half the pot (aka half your stack) and be prepared to call off my stack and pray for the river. A thinking opponent is gonna put the brakes on real quick to somebody who bets half their stack into a pot bigger than their stack after they raised 1/3rd of it preflop.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: Apparently you we're in the SB instead of the button. Id bet half the pot (aka half your stack) and be prepared to call off my stack and pray for the river. A thinking opponent is gonna put the brakes on real quick to somebody who bets half their stack into a pot bigger than their stack after they raised 1/3rd of it preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God. I thought I was losing ,my mind. This was my exact thinking. Basically how I would most likely play QQ-AA. Also why I like this move from the SB rather than the button. If I was on button, I would have to fold to any continuation bet here.


RESULTS

I bet 600. He goes into the tank, and folds.