Theoretical question

kenewbie · #1 08-12-2004, 04:52 AM

A high pocket pair has a higher chance of winning against random hands that go to the river than suited connectors.

But if you play QQ with 9 opponents in the pot and you get a single overcard on the turn, the hand is hard to get away from at passive tables. Even with no overcards chances are someone has two pair.

87s will win less frequently, but when it hits you it hits you hard. The chance of you dragging the pot in a large field is good, and it is easy to get away from the hand early.

Anyone able to do some math on this? Im curious as to how close you get to closing the gap between the hands due to the certainty with which you can play the suited connectors.

k

SpaceAce · #2 08-12-2004, 05:06 AM

It doesn't come anywhere near closing the gap. You have to play QQ horribly to lose with it and you have to play 87s expertly to win with it. When 87s hits you all the way, it will hit hard, yes, but you have to play it over and over and over again to get that hit. How many times will you flop a straight draw that doesn't come in? A flush draw the doesn't come in? Bottom pair? Nothing but a backdoor draw? A gutshot with no odds to chase it? Not only that, but no matter how slick you think you are sometimes you're going to end up at the river with a pair or two small pair or some other hand that your 87 made that is going to go down to a slightly better hand.

On the other hand, QQ has already hit you. You don't need improvement, your opponents do! When you play 87s you have to hope for very specific and fairly unlikely flops. With QQ, you just have to hope not to see anything incredibly bad for your hand.

QQ is a strong made hand, 87s is nothing but a whiff of potential.

SpaceAce

Brian · #3 08-12-2004, 05:14 AM

Don't forget that QQ is as likely to make a monster hand as 87s is.

-Brian

pokerkai · #4 08-12-2004, 05:18 AM

Ill take my chances of flopping a set with QQ then flopping a draw with 78s tyvm [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

kenewbie · #5 08-12-2004, 05:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that QQ is as likely to make a monster hand as 87s is.
-Brian

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I thought 87s had a better chance of improving to a monster than QQ did. That was sort of the basis for the entire question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And just to set the record straight, I'm not out to advocate playing 87s over QQ or anything, I know QQ is the better hand I was just curious as to _how much_ better it is in a given field.

k

kenewbie · #6 08-12-2004, 05:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How many times will you flop a straight draw that doesn't come in?

[/ QUOTE ]

68.5% of the time to be exact [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I see your point though.

I do however belive that I put more money into pots I dont win with QQ than I do with 87s. This should even it out somewhat but I'm starting to realize that its microscopical.

Thank you for the replies.

k

Brian · #7 08-12-2004, 05:43 AM

Hi kenewbie,

As long as you consider a set or full house a strong hand, then yes, QQ probably has as good of a chance to make a strong hand as 87s. I say probably because I am no math expert and am not sure how often 87s completes a good hand. You'll flop a Flush draw about 11% of the time, but only complete that 1/3rd of the time. I'm not sure how often you'll flop a Straight draw, but it's probably about as often. But, 87s is a good hand in a 9-way pot because you stand to win a lot of bets those few times that you do complete a draw.

On the other hand, QQ will flop a set about 13% of the time, and that will take down monster pot after monster pot. 1 pair of Queens will also occasionally take down a pot, but definitely not as often as it would in a short-handed pot. It's a tradeoff. QQ has about the same EV in a large pot as it does in a small pot. In a short-handed pot, it will hold up unimproved much more often, but it won't take down as large of a pot. In a multiway pot, it won't hold up as often, but when it does, it'll take down a monster.

If I had to quantify the difference between QQ and 87s in terms of EV on the Button after 7 limpers with SB and BB always coming in, I'd say QQ has an EV of about 2 big bets and 87s about 1 small bet.

-Brian

Brian · #8 08-12-2004, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I do however belive that I put more money into pots I dont win with QQ than I do with 87s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not often put in a lot of money drawing to a Straight or Flush with 87s and then not hit? Not that it's really even relevent.

-Brian

kenewbie · #9 08-12-2004, 05:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
QQ has about the same EV in a large pot as it does in a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had me at hello.

Thank you for the reply, everything is much clearer now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

k

kenewbie · #10 08-12-2004, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do however belive that I put more money into pots I dont win with QQ than I do with 87s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not often put in a lot of money drawing to a Straight or Flush with 87s and then not hit? Not that it's really even relevent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I do, my thinking was that QQ wins 20% of the time and the flush or straight comes around 33% of the time and since it has a very high chance of winning, the amount of money I put in postflop with 87s without dragging the pot would be less. But you are right, its a moot point.

k