Stop and going w/ trash.

suited_ace · #1 10-20-2005, 07:30 PM

I've been experimenting a little bit w/ this...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

MP (t1080)
Button (t1140)
SB (t2205)
Hero (t1935)
UTG (t1640)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t600, 3 folds, Hero calls t300.

Flop: (t1350) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t1335 (All-In).

My reasoning is that 80%+ of the time the low level players will have a mid to low pair, aces w/ bad kickers, random broadway cards or suited connectors when they min-raise like that. The chance of them actually having something that can call me in that spot is not very high, but is it low enough to make this a +EV play at the low levels?

ZeroPointMachine · #2 10-20-2005, 07:42 PM

I think the stopngo is a desperation move to make the best of a bad situation. You are not nearly to the point of resorting to this move at this table. Save this move for situations where you have very little future FE if you fold to the pre-flop raise.

suited_ace · #3 10-20-2005, 07:45 PM

If I was at the point of having very little FE after folding my BB, then I wouldn't be able to pull out a stop and go. I'd be in push/fold mode.

You have to have FE post-flop to pull it out, you know?

bjb23 · #4 10-20-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I was at the point of having very little FE after folding my BB, then I wouldn't be able to pull out a stop and go. I'd be in push/fold mode.

You have to have FE post-flop to pull it out, you know?

[/ QUOTE ]

so youre snging now b/c you wont be able to sng later?

you have plenty of fe for open pushing if you fold here, so fold. (unless, of course, you have some amazing read on the villian)

ZeroPointMachine · #5 10-20-2005, 08:08 PM

Making a push based on the flop and your read of opponents range is not a stop-n-go. It's a bluff. A stop-n-go is when you call pre-flop intending to push any and every flop because the flop just might scare villian bad enough to save a few chips. It is a last resort. Looking for places to use it is like trying to get wounded so you don't get killed in the battle.

Freudian · #6 10-20-2005, 08:12 PM

If you have a choice, having some kind of hand is nice. But the situation is much more important.

Personally, I perhaps use it once every 20 SnGs or less (other than as a desperation move where I know I will get called but its either that or an all-in that is 100% to be called preflop). That is because I need such a big stack for it to be meaningful to try it. And with a big enough stack I think there are better ways to try to accumulate chips.

But if I have a big enough stack and the right kind of opponent, I don't really care about my cards.

I think your example is a good example of a spot where I kinda like it. Your flop bet means something and he can't call you without a legitimate hand. Now if you think he will call you down with A3, then it's not all that sexy anymore.

suited_ace · #7 10-20-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you have a choice, having some kind of hand is nice. But the situation is much more important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect.

[ QUOTE ]
...That is because I need such a big stack for it to be meaningful to try it. And with a big enough stack I think there are better ways to try to accumulate chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I don't know. Maybe I should post this in the probability forum for the math nerds to find out if this is +EV or not.

[ QUOTE ]
...But if I have a big enough stack and the right kind of opponent, I don't really care about my cards.

I think your example is a good example of a spot where I kinda like it. Your flop bet means something and he can't call you without a legitimate hand. Now if you think he will call you down with A3, then it's not all that sexy anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my point. I only do it when several conditions apply:

1. When the flop comes, my stack must be about the same size as the pot, and it must be at least 60% of Villain's stack.

2. I must have some sort of read on Villain that tells me he's capable of laying down not only A3, but AK, AQ, in that kind of flop as well. In a nutshell, I'm not doing this if I don't give Villain enough credit.

3. Winning the hand puts me in a very comfortable position for the rest of the tournament. Just to give you an example, look what happens when Villain folds in the example I gave:

MP (t1080) ----> 1080
Button (t1140)---> 1140
SB (t2205) ----> 2205
Hero (t1935) ----> 2685
UTG (t1640) -----> 1040

I'm getting 2 clear groups of players: 3 shortstacks w/ ~3BBs each and 2 medium stacks w/ ~8BBs each. I get the other medium stack to my right, which usually means I won't have my BB stolen as much from the SB. I'm also able to push more into the shortstacks without worrying about busting out. This is like blind stealing heaven.

tigerite · #8 10-20-2005, 08:49 PM

I don't like it here, you have still got a lot of chips and good FE on pushes. I also don't like the hand you have got.

ZeroPointMachine · #9 10-20-2005, 09:38 PM

If you fold Pre-Flop EV=20.5%

If Villain folds to your push EV=28.3% (+7.8%)

If Villain calls and you win EV=31.8%(+11.3%)

If you hate the flop and decide not to push and villain takes hand EV=15.8%(-4.7%)

If Villain calls and you lose EV=0%(-20.5%)

% of time Villain folds = X

Villain calls= (1-X)

Let’s be generous and say that if you get called you are an 80/20 dog with 2 cards to come.

Let’s also say that in the rare case you hate the flop and don’t raise you still manage to break even on the hand in the long run.

Even with these more than generous concessions Villain must fold 86% of the time for the play to be EV neutral.

This is not a race where you get 5 cards and could be 45/55 dog. When you are called you are virtually dead (20/80 was very generous IMO).

suited_ace · #10 10-20-2005, 09:43 PM

Thanks for the math. I think this answers my question.