AA with lots of flop action, turn play ok?

RustyCJ · #1 10-31-2005, 01:40 AM

When UTG+2 caps PF, I would normally suspect AA-QQ or AKs, however, I've seen caps with lots of crappy hands at this level so nothing is guaranteed.

I was very concerned about the BB 3-bet on the flop, I was pretty sure he had KQ.

I raised the turn because, I could still have the best hand, if I'm behind to a set I can win with an A or a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If BB has KQ any A, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 or 2 wins for me.

What if the turn wasn't a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], go into call down mode?

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 caps, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (19.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (15.70 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (24.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 27.70 BB

NateDog · #2 10-31-2005, 01:45 AM

I'm still undecided about the turn raise. UTG likely has at least 2 pr by the action, and BB calling along worries me. How many different combo's of AK or AQ could he have to be going crazy with? How many combo's of KK, QQ or KQ could he have here? You have the redraw so you aren't folding, but I'm not sure about the turn raise. (My judgement may be affected by seeing the complete action of the hand).

MrWookie47 · #3 10-31-2005, 01:52 AM

With the preflop cap and the flop cap, you should just call that turn. Fold the river, certainly as you played it. You're looking at KK/QQ 99.9% of the time.

#4 10-31-2005, 03:06 AM

1 in 26 times you dont see AK here????

Edit: you cant fold that river for a pot that big imo
i dont think you should be raising the turn either

Aaron W. · #5 10-31-2005, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I raised the turn because, I could still have the best hand, if I'm behind to a set I can win with an A or a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If BB has KQ any A, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 or 2 wins for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the flop and turn cap, I don't think you have the best hand often enough to raise. I'm not suggesting that you *DON'T* have the best hand sometimes, but you really need to try to quantify you "could" in some reasonable way. I think you're running into AK rarely relative to the times you run into KK and QQ. In fact, you can count the times:

AA = 1 way
AK = 6 ways
KK = 3 ways
QQ = 3 ways

But this 50-50 split (plus one hand freerolling on AA) assumes that villain will always cap the turn with AK - which is somewhat in doubt. If you take AKs only, this becomes only 2 ways and villain is 3 times more likely to have you crushed and needing a club.

Since you were 3-bet on the turn, I don't think you should call the river bet UI. You should try to think ahead a little bit more.

Webster · #6 10-31-2005, 08:31 AM

I don't like that Turn raise at all - you KNOW your going to get reraised. Yea - you have 11 outs for a nut but in my view if you would have hit it would have reinforced a bad turn raise. You might havd had odds to raise IF there were no raises behind you. Implied odd's an all that!!

I would just check and call all the way in this pot hoping things calm down and it won't cost you TOO much.

But - it's before morning coffe so I could be wrong.

Aaron - you have me beat by 2 months!! LOL

#7 10-31-2005, 08:51 AM

I think raising the turn is pretty bad. You are almost certainly behind and lose money on every bet you're putting in the pot. Plus you don't really have to worry about protecting your hand as all your outs are pretty much to the nuts, and you're not folding J10.

pokernicus · #8 10-31-2005, 09:32 AM

I also don't like the turn raise; when you three bet like that before the flop, you're announcing a big hand AA-JJ, AK -- something like that. Now, from your opponents perspective, both a K and Q could fit nicely into your range of possible hands. The fact that no one is slowing down means they're not scared of the K or Q helping you (probably because it helped them). Unless the BB and UTG+1 are in some type of weird cohoots to get you to fold, I think you're behind and need to consider folding the river if unimproved.

jrz1972 · #9 10-31-2005, 10:20 AM

Like everyone else said, just call the turn. The raise was goofy.

I'm fine with calling the river. UTG+2 is grossly overplaying AK often enough that this call isn't going to be a big mistake (and it may not be a statistical mistake at all, given your reads).

TomBrooks · #10 10-31-2005, 12:39 PM

Just call the turn. Your behind and drawing. You might get three bet. (Which you did.)