HU championships odds on Bodog.

[Daliman]

Linky

Anyone else here think maybe a certain crew member dropped a big # on himself? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Rushmore]

Oh my God, there is just so much wrong with those odds, I don't know where to start, other than to ask that age-old question:

"Let's see--who would I rather face in a headsup tournament format: Scott Fischmann, or Johnny Chan?"

[Army Eye]

[ QUOTE ]
Linky

Anyone else here think maybe a certain crew member dropped a big # on himself? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah a certain crew member does have awfully strange odds

Some discussion on the odds was had in this thread

[bholdr]

First off, all of the lines are screwy. nobody is being given good enough odds to be profitable, IMO, but some bets are clearly better than others.

The oddsmakers are not only taking into consideration who stands what chance of winning, but, more importantly in this case, they're considering 'who will the betting public want to bet on'

this is why, for example, annie duke is getting better odds to win than Lyle Berman, who most people would admit is a FAR better player. but annie has thet made for TV look and popularity, so the odds against her winning have to go down because, theroeticly, more poeople will be betting on her. which makes her a terrible bet, and Berman a slightly less bad bet.

now, to compensate for such deflated odds, the odds against other, lesser known (or at least less betable) players have to go up. by spotting those players one can find the best bets. IMO, the least -EV bets in this feild would be the really great players that don't get as much respec as they deserve:

prahald freidman at 42/1
todd brunson at 45/1
nick frangos at 70/1
Sklansky at 38/1
feild at 25/1


I won big on the washington-cal game last night, perhaps I'll put a five on each of these...

and it's hard not to bet on Greenstien, IMO, he is the best player in the world right now, but 20/1 is horrible, and barry'd be the first to admit that.

[Daliman]

I believe that odds are posted for every player, therefore making the field bet slightly -EV.

TY PP for that.

[chalimac]

Carlos Mortensen at 30/1? I met him and Miami' John Cernuto at the World HU Championship in Barcelona and they play bloody well. I'm on them.

They are nice guys too, they invited me to their table -not poker table but drinks and food table [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] and we commented the play of Devilfish as it unfolded.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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Carlos Mortensen at 30/1? I met him and Miami' John Cernuto at the World HU Championship in Barcelona and they play bloody well. I'm on them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody in the field is a profitable bet at less than 50-1. Or, if you prefer T.J.'s opinion, nobody is a good bet at less than 40-1. And by that, we both mean whomever is the absolute best player in the field.

The BoDog lines are a joke, simply intended to take money from suckers.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[chalimac]

I agree Mr. Raymer, the odds are not profitable at all. But we all spew some romantic bets from time to time because of a prop, or because we know the players or just to spice up a little the TV coverage.

I pointed two players that excel at HU play. If they pass some rounds maybe I can hedge the bets at some exchanqe.

[ClaytonN]

What's funnier is the lines on the Bay101 tournament.

Mizrachi at 5:1? Hahahahaha