I can't figure out why I'm on a downswing

[Moozh]

Obviously I'm just getting unlucky.

Villian is 15/4/1. This hand isn't embarrassing at all... no really!

All streets are questionable, although I think the turn call is the most reasonable. On the flop I have the backdoor straight for 1.5 and two overs for 3, plus a runner-runner to pick up a flush draw on the river. What do you mean when you say picking up a flush draw on the river is worthless? Sometimes I just don't understand you weak-tighties.

Raise and fold on the river? Just call one? I don't like callling the 3-bet, but then I did it, didn't I...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

[Nick Royale]

I would have fold the flop, but a call isn't too bad IMO. Don't fold the river.

[Shillx]

although I think the turn call is the most reasonable.

I think it is too loose. If it is correct for you to call here it isn't correct by much and I wouldn't lose any sleep over making this type of tiny mistake.

Brad

[JoshuaD]

With ~7 outs I raise this flop and take the free card if I need to. You'll be getting 3.5:1 on the flop, your hand comes in just short of 30% of the time, and you'll probably pick up another bet if you make your hand.

[Moozh]

I like the flop raise and now I'm mad I didn't think of that myself. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Is the turn call that close getting over 5:1? Are we that scared of the flush?

I'm curious about the river too. Do I raise that?

[oreogod]

I dont see how u can count on 7 outs here. The flush draw kills the value of your hand. Personally I think that is what u are up against.

I take Joshuas line if the board isnt flush coordinated. I think really, and this is against a flush he has about 4.5-5 outs. (discount AJ of spades, lower backdoor straight out).

So against a flush u have about 4.5 outs (to weak to continue), against top pair u have about 7 outs (raise for free card, questionable, but if u get a free turn out of it, awesome).

I fold this hand though. Against same board no-flush I raise it. I cant help but think this is a BB special suited.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]

I fold this hand though. Against same board no-flush I raise it. I cant help but think this is a BB special suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding against what you figure is a flush-draw is terrible.

That said, with an agression of 1, I don't think BB is betting this flop with a flush draw.

[Luv2DriveTT]

Fold the flop. The board is coordinated in suit &amp; in sequence. Hero has 2 overcards and an outside straight draw, not good enough in my book. If there was an outside flush draw added to the equasion I would consider seeing the turn, but not raise. BB thought enough about this flop to bet out, he is saying I got a piece of this baby and I'm willing to protect it... you can expect a 3-bet from him at least 50% of the time.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[oreogod]

Fair enough. But VP$IP of 15 and he seems pretty excited about his hand. If he sees the one card straight as well as the flush possibility out there and is still coming at u -- I think hes got either/or.

I dont see top pair, two pair or a set hitting u on the river like this. At least for a villian with his stats. Unless he is just plain blind.

Blind defend with 78s or Axs?

[That guy]

I don't get it. You counted your outs on the flop and the pot isn't big enough to continue for 4.5 outs.

You should fold the flop. You should definitely raise this pre-flop but your hand has been devalued greatly on this flop. Why continue? Fold and move on.