Party Poker bad beat odds?

[moxfangboner]

I was curious as to what are the exact odds of having 4 8's or better and losing to a higher 4 of a kind or straight flush, seems like it would be something like 500,000 to 1, am I close?

[crimhead]

Well, the odds approach 100% as the number of hands played increases indefinately.

As to the odds on any given hand (of which I haven't so much as an estimate) they are higher the more loose callers in the pot. A hand as weak as 86o can win the Jackpot. More passive players encourage more rivering and backdoor freak hands as well.

personally I have never seen a hand that would qualify, at any (HE) game ever, and I have been playinmg steady for about four years.

Good luck though.

[soko]

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Well, the odds approach 100% as the number of hands played increases indefinately.


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This is incorrect, every time you are dealt 88 and your opponent is dealt AKs the odds are exactly the same that you will get 4 of a kind and he will get a straight flush, regardless if you just sat down or you are on your 100,000th hand.

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A hand as weak as 86o can win the Jackpot.


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According to the Party Poker guidelines for the bad beat jackpot both down cards must be used from the winning and losing hands to qualify.

[Wabby]

Yeah, it would have to be T8o

Opponent have 99, and the board shows 88899.

I think this will qualify.

[Rudbaeck]

86o is actually the worst hand that can lose and qualify for the jackpot.

Board is 8s8h8c5c4c opponent has 7c6c.

[KingDan]

Why wont 8 2 offsuit qualify?

[Rudbaeck]

Both hole cards in both hands must play. In my example the loser (or winner of the bbj) has a final hand of 88886, while the winner of the hand has the straight flush of 8c7c6c5c4c

If the person with quads had 82 his final hand would be 88885, taking his kicker out of play.

[crimhead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, the odds approach 100% as the number of hands played increases indefinately.


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This is incorrect, every time you are dealt 88 and your opponent is dealt AKs the odds are exactly the same that you will get 4 of a kind and he will get a straight flush, regardless if you just sat down or you are on your 100,000th hand.

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I wasn't clear.

As the number of hands played increaces indefinately, the CUMMULATIVE chance of ANY ONE OF THOSE HANDS hitting the jackpot approaches 100%. this is equivalent to saying "it's bound to hit eventually".

Caught you on the 86o too. A lot of people miss that one. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Happy gaming.

[rolandriver]

what about with the 82.....board of 22233 v 33 up to a board of 22277 v 77...wouldn't that qualify as a jackpot?

[Rudbaeck]

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what about with the 82.....board of 22233 v 33 up to a board of 22277 v 77...wouldn't that qualify as a jackpot?

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Quad 8s or better beaten to qualify for the bbj. So 8888x is the worst hand that can trigger the bbj when it loses.