Push crap or wait a hand?

[Misfire]

Ok, I'm still trying to figure out this bubble aggression/desperation thing. Sorry if this is too n00bish, but it's probably my biggest weakness right now...

$10+1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

BB (t4101)
UTG (t1256)
Hero (t1230)
SB (t1413)

Preflop:Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG folds, Hero?

[petvan]

folds.. just about anything you get next hand is going to be better..

[lastchance]

Easy, easy fold.

FOLD!!! MUCK!

[Misfire]

That's what I figured.

So if I'm not pushing any two, what should the threshold be? Under what conditions should I be pushing any two? (or is "any two" not meant to be taken literally?)

[Freudian]

In this hand big stack is BB and I am learning the hard way that big stacks don't respect 3xBB all-ins.

[juris]

You really have to give it up and take your shot soon, but it's almost impossible to have a worse hand.

If this was the big blind, non bubble, and three limpers, that would be a much more interesting question.

[eastbay]

Here's one way to approach the general underlying question.

Let's do an ICM analysis for push equity for 32o now (to make the final point clear), or for pushing any (and every) hand you get next hand.

Let's take the stack pecularities out of the question for the moment and give everybody 2300 and you 1200, and keep blinds 200/400.

For 20% of K-S rank calling ranges, your push equity is 17.4%. This appears to be about a break-even proposition with folding the hand. However...

If you fold this hand and push any two from UTG, your push equity has now dropped slightly to 17.2%. This is a weighted average of a push equity for every possible holding you might pick up on the next hand. How is a drop possible even when your cards will be better? Position, position, position.

Considering if you fold once more you're going to get whacked by the BB for 1/3 of your stack, folding twice can only be worse than pushing from the button or utg.

Digging a little deeper, once you're UTG your all-in will probably get a little less respect than it might from the button, since people know you don't want to get whacked for 1/3 of your stack on the next hand, so keeping calling standards constant from your button to utg push is probably optimistic. This only makes the conclusion more clear.

The analysis here says quite clearly: push crap hand now.

The possibly counterintuitive reason is that any advantage you are gaining from drawing two new cards is being more than counteracted by your weakened position.

The effect is not huge in this case, but I've given you 32o to make the principle as clear as possible. Even with 32o, position wins over a random draw of new cards.

Working this out with the extra variables of a big stack and two shorter stacks (and all that implies) is left as an exercise for the reader.

eastbay

[45suited]

Eastbay, one thing that your analysis did not mention that I think is relevant is the possibility that one of the other two shortstacks makes a move and busts before you do. This is one spot that I have to go against the program and be a little patient.

[runner4life7]

Eastbay,
thanks for posting here because I think I would have pushed this and if anything thought it might have been close, but everyone said auto fold and I almost questioned my play. Thank you for the confidence and the money you have basically made me because I am a robot not a brain.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
That's what I figured.

So if I'm not pushing any two, what should the threshold be? Under what conditions should I be pushing any two? (or is "any two" not meant to be taken literally?)

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were that easy, everyone would make money playing poker.

Two words: situational dependent.