Standard AK?

jkkkk · #1 07-25-2005, 10:42 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($48.50)
Hero ($63.75)
BB ($48.25)
UTG ($25.25)
UTG+1 ($47.75)
MP1 ($70.55)
MP2 ($58.80)
MP3 ($57.75)
CO ($41.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $1.75, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $5, BB raises to $15, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($38) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB pushes for $31ish, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $38

Villain is 30/1.6 and is passive post-flop.

xorbie · #2 07-25-2005, 10:50 AM

Looks fine.

deadmoney98 · #3 07-25-2005, 10:52 AM

raise more pre-flop, like to 3, charge your opponents to play when you have a premium hand, especially OOP when you need to thin the field a bit.

After that, it certainly seems like you have to be well behind here, but I still might have just pushed on the flop hoping to hit another [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] just because it sucks having to lay this down, though from villain's line it does not seem like you had any fold equity, nm.

jkkkk · #4 07-25-2005, 11:04 AM

The only thing that made me think about this hand was villains VPIP, for a second I entertained the possbility he was doing this with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or something.

dtbog · #5 07-25-2005, 11:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: ($8) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $5, BB raises to $15, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls $10.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is truly very passive postflop, then you have no folding equity and he has already made his hand. Believe it or not, this is a fold on the flop.

This raise means set or flush from a very passive opponent, and you have 30% equity vs. each. Your implied odds are zero, because he's not calling another bet when a heart hits.... so if you call this flop, you're just drawing to a heart on the turn. The heart will come just under 20% of the time -- and this is ignoring the fact that he very likely has two hearts in his hand, which would lower this probability to 15%. You don't have the pot odds to call on the flop.

If you push, you know he will call, so folding equity is zero. You don't have the odds for this either.

theben · #6 07-25-2005, 11:27 AM

you have lots of options on the flop. w/ TPTK nut flush draw, you could often push the flop but you said you are against passive player. this means you probably are against something big and you don;t have drawing odds and a fourth heart doesnt give you good implied odds either

jkkkk · #7 07-25-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
because he's not calling another bet when a heart hits

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you so sure?

I thought I had the implied odd's here at least, calling $10 for a $28 pot, if my [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes on the turn, do you really not see him putting in an additional $22?

He would have $31 left in a $38 pot, I couldn't really see him folding being loose-passive.

P.S

The same guy just pushed me off KK when the flop came Q high, I was reluctant to fold. The next hand he pushed $75 in pre-flop with QQ against someones AA, someone finally exposed him, just wish it could of been me. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

excession · #8 07-25-2005, 01:12 PM

You have TPTK and nut flush draw.

If he has made flush (say Qhh) you are 30:70 dog.
If he has set you are about 30:70 dog...

Anything else you are way ahead..

After he re-raises to $10 on the flop, I am sorely tempted to push or fold. I guess for a $10 call you are looking at winning $28 so you have to believe he will pay you out another $23 or so if the 4th heart hits to have correct implied odds, which must be unlikely. I reckon you would hit only 18% of the time on the next card. Realistically let's say you could take another $10 off him on average if you hit (sometimes he just 'has' to see). Of course he may give you a cheap or free card on the river fearing the nut flush if you stay with him but it does seem unlikely. Let's assume 75% of the time he bets big on turn and you have to fold if you miss. So 82% of the time you miss and 75% of that you have to fold (as happened)= 60% lose $17, 18% of the time you hit and make $38, and 22% of the time you get to see the river and have a similar 18%/82% outcome there. Average minus $3.36/hand

Pushing would risk $42 to win $70 and you would win how often? We know he doesn't have the nut flush so there must be some chance he would lay down - let's say 20% lay down, and of the remaining 80%, 30% win - 20% of the time you win $28, 30% you win $70, 50% you lose $57 -an average loss of $2 or so/hand

Folding would just lose $7 already in. Loss $7/hand

So it's a crying push [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I really need to check these figures again though..