I have JJ, and I'm lost, as usual

Nick C · #1 06-23-2005, 03:24 AM

I see I now have a green BB/hand number for JJ. I must've won a 1/2 6-max or NL 25 hand with it or something. It's still the only pocket pair I'm losing money with.

I could give you PT stats for my opponents, but I was new to the table, and I didn't know much about them at the time. So let's call them 3/6 unknowns.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 caps (Oh, crud. I guess I probably need a set.), Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP1 calls.

I raised because MP1 could just have TT, and I didn't really want BB hanging around with over(s) in that case, if I could help it (probably I couldn't). Actually, if MP1 just had AK (somewhat doubtful, I thought), I didn't really want BB hanging around with a worse pocket pair for just one bet either (but, again, there's probably not much I could do about it anyway). As you may have gathered, I have doubts about this raise being for value, in terms of equity. Anyway, though, as you can see, BB did fold.

Turn: (8.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

Well, there's very little chance I have the best hand now. I guess I'll bet anyway and hope MP1 has KK/QQ and no hearts and will dump it. (I considered just giving up here, by the way.)

River: (10.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

And here I did give up. Should I have fired one last time, in the hopes of folding out KK/QQ and a missed flush draw?

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

I'm not really sure about any of the postflop streets, so all comments are welcome.

imported_CaseClosed326 · #2 06-23-2005, 03:36 AM

I would bet the river. Unknowns like to be stupid, so he could have alot of hands that you beat. I think he would have pointed out that he had an ace on the turn. And if he had qq or kk he would have let you know on the flop. So I think there is value in betting the river.

shant · #3 06-23-2005, 03:44 AM

I really don't see any other way to play this. I don't see value in betting the river.

Nick C · #4 06-23-2005, 03:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river. Unknowns like to be stupid, so he could have alot of hands that you beat. I think he would have pointed out that he had an ace on the turn. And if he had qq or kk he would have let you know on the flop. So I think there is value in betting the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the optimism!

I'm pretty sure a river bet is not for value, though. However, it might be worth making one, mainly as a bluff, but with some small potential that it's actually a value bet added in.

Party 3/6 players tend to have preflop 3-betting and capping standards that are approximately as tight as mine.

They also tend (in my opinion) to figure those standards are what their preflop 3-bets and caps represent to their TAG opponents, such as me.

So I'm not sure I would have heard any more from KK/QQ on the flop.

Brash620 · #5 06-23-2005, 04:03 AM

Looks good until the river. I think you should bet it. Mp1 hasn't showed much strength after the flop. He lead out yes, but that seems like a standard line considering he capped preflop. I personaly would expect a three-bet with K,K or Q,Q on a flop like this. MP could also have pair an ace on the turn but that seems unlikely since he didn't bet or raise the turn.

shant · #6 06-23-2005, 04:16 AM

I don't understand what hand range the people who are saying bet the river are putting the opponent on. Can you guys explain the river bet further than "He doesn't have KK or QQ."

Nick C · #7 06-23-2005, 04:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what hand range the people who are saying bet the river are putting the opponent on. Can you guys explain the river bet further than "He doesn't have KK or QQ."

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I think he will have KK/QQ a very high percentage of the time here.

One of the things I'm wondering is if it's worth firing again anyway.

Will he call with something worse or (more importantly) fold KxK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/QxQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] often enough?

aK13 · #8 06-23-2005, 05:19 AM

I'd pin this guy explicitly on QQ.

He capped preflop, and you still raised him on the flop. I think he's scared you have KK/AA.

Malachii · #9 06-23-2005, 05:31 AM

I think this looks pretty good. A river bet is just throwing a big bet away, IMO.

I guess the only thing I'm unsure of is the turn. That ace is a really bad card for you, because any hand he could logically have capped with preflop has you beat at this point. What value is there in betting the turn here?

SavageMiser · #10 06-23-2005, 07:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand what hand range the people who are saying bet the river are putting the opponent on. Can you guys explain the river bet further than "He doesn't have KK or QQ."

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet the river, but not because I think I've got the best hand. I'm pretty sure I lose if it goes check-check, but I'm also pretty sure he hasn't got an ace. One more bet gives him the opportunity to fold or convince himself I've got one.