10-20 NL Bellagio Hand

Xelent · #1 12-07-2004, 03:26 AM

Hero($1800) raises to $80 with AKo and I get one caller($2-3K?) He has position on me and he looks kind of familiar, but I do not know much of his play yet. Flop comes 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Pot is $190 and I take a stab and bet $100. He called and I was almost positive he had the nut diamond draw based on his actions. The pot was now $390 so it was worth taking if the diamond didn't come on the turn. The turn came a J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet $400 (mistake?) He thinks for a little and calls. River comes a low blank card. This is a big pot and I feel like I need to bet if I want it because he probably had a pair to go along with his flush draw. I was thinking maybe he flopped it with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and a bet could take it. How should I proceed from here? Cut my losses or bet and if so, how much?

Shaun · #2 12-07-2004, 06:26 AM

Well, I'm not saying I'd do it, but I think to win this pot you need to bet about 1000$ here on the river. You cannot check, because he is likely to make a big bet you are going to have a hard time calling with no pair whether he has you beat or not. Is it possible that he has AQd or AKd? Maybe. He may also have some kind of pair/flush combo like you suggested. He might even have an overpair to the flop, something like tens, or even a set he is milking.

Of course if you just check you probably won't win the pot but won't lose anymore money either. Anyway, if your read is correct and he has a flush draw, pair or no pair I think you need to put him to a tough decision.

greywolf · #3 12-07-2004, 06:48 AM

Yes i would bet here pretty often but not always, but I like to get myself into trouble, I might also consider checkraising allin here if i think my opponent will take off if i check and the stacks are deep enough. The problem is if he has JTs or A8s and checks behind. Check calling hoping he has missed the flush and has nothing seems weak but then again he isnt likely to be valuebetting a pair here
He might have hit the straight on turn tho..One thing is for sure: you would look fishy having bet the flop and turn and then call a river bet with nothing but AKo just to lose to whatever hes holding.

coltrane · #4 12-07-2004, 07:10 AM

a big river bet looks more like a bluff than anything....what other hands would you bet like this?....surely not an overpair, maybe a set......

[ QUOTE ]
I do not know much of his play yet

[/ QUOTE ]

firing three barrels out of position with no read is a losing proposition IMO....I check/fold this turn all day and save my bluffs (and money) for when I have position/read/outs/etc........