Final table hand: Bellagio Sunday $540

[Jedster]

Here's the situation: 5 players remain in the Bellagio Sunday $540.

Blinds/antes are 800/1600 with 200 ante.

We are five handed. I am in small blind with 12k. Big blind has about 7k. UTG has 40k or so and UTG+1 has 20k or so. Button has over 100k and is a very solid player.

The action is folded to the button who raises to 6k and I look down and see 88. For sake of argument, my nearly certain read is that the button has two big cards -- I'm nearly 100% sure that 88 is good. I also know I have absolutely no preflop fold equity. Moreover, I'm sure that the big blind will go allin if I fold and he's got a decent gambling hand, but will fold if I push unless he has JJ-AA or AK/AQs (if I fold he'd call with as little as JT or T9s).

5th pays $2,830. 4th pays almost $3,750 or so. 3rd pays $7ish, 2nd pays $12ish, 1st pays $20ish.

What's the your play? Fold here hoping the BB will bust out and you can move up the money ladder, or play to win and go with the strong read that 88 is good? If you go with 88 being good should you go all-in or just call and push the flop?

[Lloyd]

I could go through a more detailed $EV calculation but my gut feeling (and it's as strong as you're read that he has two overs) is to use a stop and go. Call the bet. If the BB pushes (raising it an additional $1k) then you very well may more than double up and knock him out. Another possibility is that the button knocks you both out but you get 4th place money since you started the hand with the larger stack. You'll push any flop.

The difference in payout between 5th and 4th is just not that much. But if you get to third it's a big increase and winning this hand puts you in a good position to do so (or higher).

[shaniac]

Looks like the perfect spot to gamble with 88.

[Jedster]

I'm 95% sure I need to play this hand and I'm pretty well convinced that a stop-n-go is the best way to play it (since the button WILL fold if an overcard to his overs flops and he doesn't pair up or draw up). I also might consider folding an all-broadway flop.

The 5% of me that thinks I can muck here goes like this: I have the best position on the table relative to the big stack since I'm to his immediate left. Whenever he folds, if I have anything at all, I can go all-in. I have guy to my left covered, plus the other guys have been consistently folding to my all-ins. Until the guy to my left either doubles up or busts (which will happen within the next 5 hands guaranteed), I can just play to move up a spot.

That said I felt pretty confident in my abilities at the table and if I doubled up I think I would have had a very good shot at 2nd place. So I don't regret playing the 88 -- I just wished I'd used a stop-n-go because I think Tomer might have folded the 4c4s5c flop (his KQo spiked a K on the river). Also, I think the BB would have come along if I had just called (I think he had AJ).