Did I mis-play this? (AK hits trips, raised when flush draw hits)

[elitegimp]

"Reads": This is hand number 9 at the table, and there is a lot of passivity / folding going on... I think there were two (maybe three) showdowns in the first 8 hands I played. So no good feel for any of the people involved, sorry.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.


Turn: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks to turn aggressor (planning on calling 1 bet and panicking if it's 2 back to me)

My thoughts: This sure smells like MP1 hit the flush, but I'm almost more worried about SB cold-calling that turn... I'm definitely not laying that down on the turn (I count 10 outs), but couldn't convince myself to 3-bet.

Add to the mix the several beers I've had and the fact that I should be in bed right now, I just don't know how to proceed.

[Solovon]

3-bet the turn, start getting nervous if MP1 caps it. He could easily have a worse king.

[pryor15]

without a read i play it safe and just call it down, but i'd look for a reason to 3-bet the turn.

[tyler_cracker]

I think it's close between 3-betting now and donking a non-diamond river (and probably calling a raise).

Calling the turn and donking the river saves us a bet when the river is a blank and MP1 raises again with his made flush, but it misses bets when MP1 has a worse king. Raising the turn wins us 2 bets (from MP1 and SB) when we're ahead, or when we hit one of our 10 outs on the river. I think SB probably has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so we want to get money from him while he's drawing.

Ok, i've convinced myself it's not that close. Raise the turn. Call down if it's capped (though we can probably fold to a non-A diamond on the river).

[Shillx]

Well let's see here. There are 45 ways that he can hold a flush and there are 45 ways that he can have a king. Of those 45 Kx hands, there are 6 that beat you. So it is clearly wrong to 3-bet the turn if he is on either a flush or trips+. Even if you can eliminate hands like 52 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], you have to take away stuff like K2 so it is probably a wash here (you will also lose to other hands like 44 here as well so that makes it worse). Check and call the river.

Obviously it changes if the villian could have other hands. If he can do this with the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for example, I would reraise the turn for sure.

Brad

[Shillx]

Crap didn't see the 3rd player in there. First let's make a few assumptions that are slightly conservative...

Hero's equity when just called = 70%
Hero's equity when capped = 20%
Villian always has a flush or trips+ here at a 50/50 ratio
Caller is always drawing to a flush and has either 6 or 7 outs

EVcap = 12*20% - 4 = - 1.6 BB
EVcall = 9*70% - 3 = + 3.3 BB

Yeah reraise it here with the thin money going in. HU you would just call unless you felt that the villian is getting crazy with the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or otherwise.

Brad

3,273,368 games 7.140 secs 458,454 games/sec

Board: Ks 4d 3d Kd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1654 % 35.85% 03.32% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 45.7222 % 42.40% 03.32% { 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, K2s+, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8d3d, 8d2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, K2o+ }
Hand 3: 15.1124 % 15.11% 00.00% { Ad8c }

Even with 40% equity we have enough to repop...

EV = 12*.2 + 9*.6 - 7 = + .8 BB

[POKhER]

I really gotta learn that stuff!

Personally i'd have called down with lack of reads, raise would be pretty though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[lufbradolly]

I'd 3 bet the turn and if he caps then i'd check/call the river and occasionally he'll turn over trips with a worse quicker i hope!

If he just called your 3bet then your probably good to go on a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river.