Typically TT confusion

ckessel · #1 04-09-2005, 12:14 PM

I think TT and JJ haunt me more than any other pockets. Advice on all streets welcome.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 5 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

flopmonster · #2 04-09-2005, 12:27 PM

i think u can safely fold this turn

deetle · #3 04-09-2005, 12:39 PM

I agree with the turn fold. the possible range of hands he is holding (IMHO aa-jj, ak)after you playing back at him on the flop and turn makes this a easy laydown.

Luv2DriveTT · #4 04-09-2005, 04:17 PM

Cap the flop, fold the turn to a bet.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

rmarotti · #5 04-09-2005, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cap the flop, fold the turn to a bet.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Megenoita · #6 04-09-2005, 05:08 PM

Alright guys, I want to question this turn fold. What hand range are you putting Villain on? I was thinking AA-QQ, AK.

You obviously think Villain can have AKo just as easily as AA, or you would have said to check/fold the flop, right?

Assuming a Bayesian approach, it would be +EV (I found .22 EV) to call the turn, and then call the river if a spade falls, raise if a ten falls, and fold if neither falls.

Even if you give JJ and TT within his PF capping range, it's still definitely a call on the turn. The only way the turn is a fold is if you lessen the chance he has AKo, and given the way you've all chosen to play, I don't think you can do that (?).

Edited for some poor wording.

M

Megenoita · #7 04-10-2005, 04:51 AM

I'm surprised no one is talking more about this turn play. Maybe because it's so obvious to you guys. I'm going to offer why I think we should call the turn. I did an equation to see if calling the turn is +EV. This equation assumes:

*Villain has a hand range of AA-JJ, AK and could have any of those hands equally (thus Bayes' Theorem is applied).

*We call the turn.

*Villain always bets the river. (He may not in reality, but we assume this b/c if he checks a spade, we'll bet it and he'll call. So just assume he bets for simplicity's sake.)

*If we hit a spade on the R, we just call the river (can't raise in case he has a better spade).

*If we hit a Ten on the river, we raise, he calls except when he 3 bets on 1 occasion (KK), in which case we call the 3-bet.

*If we call on the turn and miss the river, we fold.

*We round down the .66 BB as rake when we count the pot.

Here is the equation:

Villain hand range: AA (6), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), AK (12)

AsAx (3): River spade: (3)(8/44)(-2) = -1.09
River Ten: (3)(2/44)(10) = 1.36
River x: (3)(34/44)(-1) = -2.32

--> Total: -2.05

AA (no sp.) (3): River spade: (3)(9/44)(9) = 5.52
River Ten: (3)(2/44)(10) = 1.36
River x: (3)(33/44)(-1) = -2.25
--> Total: 4.63

AA Total: 2.58

QQ Total: 2.58
JJ Total: 2.58

KK (3): River spade: (3)(8/44)(9) = 4.9
River 8s: (3)(1/44)(-2) = -.14
River Ten: (3)(2/44)(-4) = -.55
River x: (3)(33/44)(-1) = -2.25

KK Total: 1.96

AK (12)

AsKx (3): River spade: (3)(8/44)(-2) = -1.09
River Ten: (3)(2/44)(10) = 1.36
River x: (3)(34/44)(-1) = -2.32

--> Total: -2.05

AK no spade (9): River spade: (9)(9/44)(9) = 16.57
River Ten: (9)(2/44)(10) = 4.09
River x: (9)(33/44)(-1) = -6.75

--> Total: 13.91

AK Total: 11.86

Total EV = (3)(2.58) + 1.96 + 11.86 = 21.56/33 total hands = .65 BB per hand EV

Granted, there may be mistakes within my math, but my point is that it seems a call is certainly the only correct play here. It's hard to imagine a scenario where we should not call this turn, yet everyone seems to opt for a fold to the turn bet.

M

HajiShirazu · #8 04-10-2005, 12:27 PM

Why raise the flop? You can't protect your hand if he does have AK, because that's going to see the river and probably a showdown every time on this board, and you're a big dog against what the average guy is going to cap with here even on this "good" flop, heck, most people don't even cap with a non-pair here, so you're not getting value on the raise.
If your raise was for information, you obviously didn't use it here, the second worst possible card came off on the turn and you still called down.
My default here is call, call, call unless A/K hits, then fold, of course betting if checked to.