100nl hand very similar to snowbanks hand

DBowling · #1 11-24-2004, 05:31 AM

This is a lot like snowbanks hand where he has OESD and flush draw. The difference is the money is going in on the turn, where i pick up my flush draw. Because of this, im fairly confident there is no other flush draw out. What do you guys think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($98)
Hero ($133.35)
UTG ($85.75)
UTG+1 ($94.2)
MP1 ($98)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($163.1)
CO ($140.5)
Button ($65.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, MP1 calls $4, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $4, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $5, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $15, Hero calls $15, UTG+1 calls $10.

Turn: ($62) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $5, MP3 raises to $15, Hero calls $15, UTG+1 raises to $40, MP3 raises to $144.1 (All-In), Hero calls $99.35 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $35.20 (All-In).

soah · #2 11-24-2004, 05:55 AM

Calling the all-in is a lot of variance and essentially neutral EV.

DBowling · #3 11-24-2004, 06:13 AM

How so? I think maybe youre forgetting the money in the pot. Im 31% to win when one of them holds a set, 36% when both hold overpairs. Now if the pot was $0, then id agree with you.

soah · #4 11-24-2004, 06:32 AM

You're getting a little better than 2:1 on your call and you'll win a bit less than 1 time in 3. I only added up the pot size in my head so I may be off a little. If I did everything right then you're at about 0 EV if UTG should happen to fold at the very end, and just barely +EV as long as he calls.

Edit: Since it's roughly neutral EV to call an all-in, did you consider pushing when it was $15 to you on the turn? A little bit of folding equity would be enough to be +EV. Being out of position on the river would make it difficult to get paid off fully on the river anyway.

greg nice · #5 11-24-2004, 08:45 AM

calling the flop was a huge mistake

BK_ · #6 11-24-2004, 09:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
calling the flop was a huge mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. mainly becuase the intial flop bettor was still to act behind you and can possibly raise. if he was ahead of you, meaning 2 people were in on the flop for 15, and you closed the action, then calling would be ok.

the turn decision is just a math problem.