Good read?

[El Dukie]

Another 8-16 hand while I'm waiting for a 15-30 seat. The table has been loosening up, and there's only a couple of aggressive spots, so it's not a bad game.

I'm in the SB, and get dealt 89o. There are four limpers, I complete (after looking left to see if BB was planning a raise) and BB checks his option. Six see the flop for 6sb.

The flop is A T 6 rainbow, giving me nothing but a gutshot. I check, BB checks, two limpers check, MP bets. MP has been the most aggressive player here so far, though his limp preflop makes me think he doesn't have a big Ace. He is the type to play A-rag, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a weak ace. The CO (who limped) folds, and it's back to me. I'm getting a measly 7-1 on my gutshot. But, if I hit a 7, I think the implied odds -- and MP's aggressiveness -- will give me the payoff I need. I decide to take one off. BB calls as well, one limper folds, the other calls. 4 to the turn for 10sb.

Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving me an open-ender but putting two clubs on the board. I also realize that if I hit a Q (to make my str8), any K will beat me. I check, BB folds (with no action, so I was a little surprised), EP limper now bets out. This surprised me a bit. EP seemed weak-tight, and this just screamed of strength to me. MP thinks and calls. I ask for time. 8-1 would normally justify a call with an open-ender. Discount the Q a bit, though, since a K would then beat me. But I've still got probably about 5 outs, and the potential for a couple more bets on the river. It occurs to me at this point that EP has KQ. I'm almost certain of it. He just hit the gutshot for the nuts, and he's going to make sure he gets paid off. (He should've checkraised, I think, but I'm fortunate that he didn't.) I fold.

River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Thoughts?

[Knockwurst]

I think it's fairly close, though I'm not sure you have even 5 outs, since the 7 clubs puts a runner, runner flush on the board, and on top of it you may be drawing dead. It seems like one of those situations that is close but you have a strong feeling about the ep's hand, so that should tip the scales in favor of a fold. And he played it consistent with having KQ and having made his gutshot.

[Jayhawk]

Easy fold. Too easy to be drawing dead here, and the pot isn't big enough (6BB) to call. EP either hit t pair (tj), set, gut draw strait. The fact that you could be drawing dead makes me fold without second thoughts.

[SpaceAce]

I think both streets are a fold.

SpaceAce

[JayKon]

Yes, good read. It doesn't even matter if you're right or not. You have counted your outs, observed the tendencies of your opponents, evaluated their possible hands based on the action and the cards on the board that make sense. Perhaps you even read a tell in there somewhere.

Now if the river was a Q and you would have won the pot, don't despair, the process is imperfect, though when used, will produce positive results.

Besides, it's fun figuring out hole cards [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]!

Jay