Help Hand Analysis

[reo]

30+3
50,000 Guaranteed
32 LEFT, 829 ENTRANTS

Blinds: 4,000 / 8,000
Position: SB (75K in chips)
Hand: 64o

Folded to MP (130k in chips) who calls. Button (50K in chips) calls. I call. BB (50K in chips) checks.

Flop is Kd 6d 4d. I check. BB checks. MP bets 25K. Button folds. MP has been aggressive. BB has been lucky and loose.

What would you do?

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
30+3
50,000 Guaranteed
32 LEFT, 829 ENTRANTS

Blinds: 4,000 / 8,000
Position: SB (75K in chips)
Hand: 64o

Folded to MP (130k in chips) who calls. Button (50K in chips) calls. I call. BB (50K in chips) checks.

Flop is Kd 6d 4d. I check. BB checks. MP bets 25K. Button folds. MP has been aggressive. BB has been lucky and loose.

What would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that depends, what do you have?

[reo]

64o. Damn, I edit the post just a minute later since I didn't have it . . . and it's noticed. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ZBTHorton]

I push. NO doubt. Everytime.

[cferejohn]

Well, I would have bet the flop in the first place, but now I definitely call. That could easily be a K or a flush draw. Even if he's got the flush, which is unlikely, you have outs. If he's got trips, well, so it goes (not too likely though since you have a 6 and a 4 and he probably would have raised KK preflop).

[reo]

So if I would have bet 15K (giving him 3 to 1) and he went all-in . . . do I call or lay 'em down?

I wouldn't worry too much about the bb. He almost certainly doesn't have a a king, unless he's holding a high diamond to go along with it, so if he's going to call an all-in with something like a pair of sixes and a j of diamonds you'll be even money to win the hand, but that holding is doubtful. Strange that you mentioned the bb was lucky and didn't reference the bettor.

Anyways, with a pot of 32+25 = 57k, if you all-in, the MP bettor will have 124/43 about 3 to 1 pot odds to call your all-in. If he has pp higher than 6s or paired up (with a kicker higher than a 6, unless he has a k, in which case kicker is pretty irrelevant) + a diamond, you'll be a slight underdog (i believe), if he has a king, you'll be maybe a 3 to 1 fav., if he has a diamond, you'll be 2 to 1 to win. And, naturally, he could have nothing. I think most of the time you'll be enough of a favorite here to make this a push. After the flop, you have 67k, 8.5 bbs. You're pretty short stacked. If you all-in and he folds, you'll have 124k, 15.5 bbs. If he calls and your hand holds up, you'll have 166k, 20.75 bbs, and in good position to go deep into this tourney. You'll almost always have the best hand here, why fold it away? When will a better opportunity come up? I think you have to gamble here.

I question the preflop call. You've only got an M of about 6. So, calling with dubious holdings from the SB is probably not the best idea.

That being said, with this flop, I get all of my chips in the middle however possible, no matter what else happens. If you run into trips, thems the breaks. If you hit a flush, thems still the breaks. Like cferejohn said, it's probably a king or flush draw. My money is on a K with a Q/J/T kicker that might be a diamond.

Here are the numbers if he has a K + diamond overcard

Board: Kd 6d 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.9091 % 50.91% 00.00% { KsTd }
Hand 2: 49.0909 % 49.09% 00.00% { 6c4s }

If he just has the K and a non diamond overcard, then here are the numbers.
Board: Kd 6d 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.8182 % 24.55% 02.27% { KsTs }
Hand 2: 73.1818 % 70.91% 02.27% { 6c4s }


If he's got slowplayed Ks
Board: Kd 6d 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 97.5253 % 95.25% 02.27% { KcKs }
Hand 2: 02.4747 % 00.20% 02.27% { 6c4s }

If he's aggressive, his range is so large that you absolutely have to push. He could be holding Ad5c, pocket 7s, he has so much that you beat. About 85% of the time, I figure at worst you are even money with the K + diamond overcard. The other 15% he's got trips or a flush, and you're pretty much screwed (although you've got 4 outs if he has the flush, 2 if he has trip fours).

Run some more scenarios on PokerStove if you need to calculate a specific ev, but I'd say that even if pushing this is slightly -cev, which I almost guarantee is wrong, remember, the point is to win/get as far as possible, not survive just a little bit longer. And you're going to need chips to do that. It's definately a +$ev move. I cost myself somewhere between 1-3k by making a laydown with about 4x bb left in my stack.

Also, don't forget, often he folds the K and maybe even the K + flush draw when you push. He doesn't know what you have. You could be on 8d7d or Ad7d.

Hope it helps,
Will

P.S. If you don't push here, you'll probably have to push in the next 30 or so hands anyway, this is probably your best chance to double up.

[reo]

[ QUOTE ]
I question the preflop call. You've only got an M of about 6. So, calling with dubious holdings from the SB is probably not the best idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I called because of pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I question the preflop call. You've only got an M of about 6. So, calling with dubious holdings from the SB is probably not the best idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I called because of pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, you're not really getting the pot odds you need, not without including implied odds anyway, and any flop which hits you hard is very unlikely to do much for anyone else. You can't play just a 4 or 6 on the flop, cuz you don't know if the other one is going to come on the turn or river or not. You've got to make 2 pair, trips, or a straight on the flop to continue with the hand. You're 49:1 to flop 2 pair, 63:1 to flop trips, and 101:1 to flop a straight.

So, basically, you're laying this hand down about 20 times out of every 21. (I didn't factor in quads or fh, but they're roughly 9800:1 and 1000:1 respectively.) This, of course, doesn't factor in when someone minraises post flop and you can afford to call with a OESD, or the flop comes 623 and you can bet with top pair that no one else is likely to have, but it also doesn't factor in situations like this when a flush comes out and then you're wondering about that, so I figure those pretty much even each other out. All of this means that you're getting roughly 20:1 odds of winning on the flop, so you have to win 80k (not take down an 80k pot into which you put 30k, but win 80k, essentially you have to double up) to make your call break even.

On a related note, you're about 23:1 to having no overcards come out, which is pretty much the deck smacking you in the face (you've made a straight, two pair + backdoor straight, or pair plus straight draw), so take advantage of it.

Against 3 random hands ( Hold'em Hand Values against random hands ), you're about 6-1 to win assuming that you can see all five cards, and you've got 7-1 odds. That means you lose 6 out of 7 times, and that's if you get to see all 5 cards and the showdown for no more bets (sometimes you win with just a pair of 4s or 6s, but you can't call river bets with just that), and that is very unlikely. You're also probably up against better than random hands with two callers, and you may even be dominated by A6 or A4.

Another issue is that the BB is still to act, and he may raise (you know this better than I, you played with him). This actually isn't a bad time for him to push and take down 24k. It'd give him about half of his stack again.

Basically, you're calling isn't horrible, but on a short stack it's very questionable. If you had an M of 25 or more, I wouldn't have even questioned it, but here you don't have a lot of chips to mess around with. Every hand you play has to count if at all possible. Oh, and if the button is any good, with his stack he probably only limps with As or Ks, taking some risk to extract maximum value. A really good player could limp some other hands too, but this is a five dollar, not the WPT.

Will