Practical take on WSOP Final Table AA Laydown scenarios

[wadea]

So it seems that a favorite time sink for many posters here is to create a super-unlikely scenario whereby you would be at the final table of the WSOP main event, get dealt aces, several people go all-in ahead of you and your call becomes -EV. In other words, you SHOULD fold pocket aces in this situation. Now, we've all seen the numbers crunched, the hand ranges, etc.

However, I believe several elements are frequently left out of this scenario. While calling here is -EV, a few facts should still be considered:

1. By making the final table you are already a millionaire.
2. Regardless of the hands out against you, you still hold a great edge in pot equity. The call is not VERY -EV.
3. If you take second in the pot to a shorter stack you are not eliminated.
4. The bracelet is worth something - at least sentimentally.
5. If you win the all-in, you are a huge favorite to win the event.
6. There are many future +EV opportunities (i.e. endorsements, an invite to the $2M WSOP tournament of champions, etc.) that are only available to the champion.

So, in light of these points, SHOULD you still fold your aces? WOULD you? COULD you?

I don't think I would fold.

-w.a.

If I was 1st-3rd in chips I would consider laying it down just so that the other people take themselves out. Then again, if it's someone who already has more chips than me, their margin will increase. And if it's someone lower than me that wins the pot, they will probably then have more than me as well. While laying it down could be considered, I think the whole -EV thing is just a crazy and contrived situation to show that aces aren't always optimal.

[OrangeKing]

If the things you were saying were true - the call is not very -EV at all, it would make you a favorite to win if you won the hand, etc. - you'd be crazy to lay down AA. If you have a lot of chips, you should always be calling with AA (not always true in satellites, we know).

The only reasonable fold comes when you're extremely short stacked - say, you're going to be out after paying a couple more antes - so that getting more chips won't help you climb up the prize ladder. Then, if a few people were already all-in in front of you, you'd fold because of your unique position - winning gives you virtually no benefit; watching the other people play probably earns you a few hundred thousand dollars.

[spaminator101]

i fold many people will probably go out on this hand moving me up in the money millions of dollars and increasing my chances of winning the event

[ChuckyB]

I would argue it would lessen my chance of winning, but I fold. Someone's going to be a monster chip leader, and it won't be me. But the chance to move up a few steps in the money (say for $1 million to $3 million) is good enough reason.

Plus the blinds are probably low enough to allow for hours and hours of play. If I'm any good (which I'm not) I could still conceivably win.

Let's look at the problem in three different scenarios. One in which you are a big chip leader, one where everyone is even, and one where you are way behind in chips.

In the first case, let's assume you have 40% of the chips. That means the other eight players each have 7.5% of the chips. If everyone at the table is about equal in talent, that gives you a 40% chance of winning first. Now everyone in front of you pushes all-in. Aces are about 35% against 8 random hands. So you're 35% to win (7.5 million plus x), where "x" is the non-cash value of winning the event. The other 65% of the time, one player will now have 67.5% of the chips, and you will have 32.5%. So you're 32.5% to win (7.5 million plus x), and 67.5% to win 4.25 million. If you fold, you are 40% to win (7.5 million plus x), and 60% to win 4.25 million. Calling here has an EV of about (6.1 million + .56 x). Folding has an EV of about (5.55 million + .4 x). So with a chip lead like this, calling would be correct, irregardless of the non-cash value of winning.

If everyone has about 11% of the chips, then you are 11% to win the event. When everyone moves all-in in front of you, a call puts you at 35% to win (7.5 million + x) and 65% to win (1 .9 million (average of 2-9 place)). A fold puts you at 11% to win (7.5 million + x) and 89% to win (4.25 million). So your EV on a call is about (3.86 million + .35 x), while your EV on a fold is about (4.57 million + .08 x). In this case, the non-cash value of winning the Main Event would need to have a cash equivelant of over 2.6 million dollars for this to be the right call.

In the final case, let's assume you have 4% of the chips, and the other players are at 12% each. In this case, winning the pot would put you at 36% of the chips. So a call puts you at 35% to be 36% to win (7.5 million + x) and 64% to win (4.25 million). You'd also have 65% to win (1 million). A fold puts you at 4% to win (7.5 million +x), and 96% to win (4.25 million). So your EV on a call would be about (1.9 million plus .13 x). Your EV on a fold would be about (4.4 million plus .04 x). So the non-cash value of calling would need to be worth about 28 million dollars to make a call correct.


It seems to me that the only decision would be in the second case. I think a call would probably be correct for some players, and incorrect for others.

[Percussion]

folding AA would be pointless and insane.
AA = best preflop hand

You have a chance (The best chance you can ever have) to bust out three people at the final table at the wsop. Why would you fold?
DO you usually fold AA preflop?

[Glenn]

Plus the blinds are probably low enough to allow for hours and hours of play. If I'm any good (which I'm not) I could still conceivably win. "

yeah you have plenty of time to wait for a really strong hand, like, oh, wait, nevermind.

[Solovon]

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Plus the blinds are probably low enough to allow for hours and hours of play. If I'm any good (which I'm not) I could still conceivably win. "

yeah you have plenty of time to wait for a really strong hand, like, oh, wait, nevermind.

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Awesome.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]

Plus the blinds are probably low enough to allow for hours and hours of play. If I'm any good (which I'm not) I could still conceivably win. "

yeah you have plenty of time to wait for a really strong hand, like, oh, wait, nevermind.

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