Didnt get there

silkyslim · #1 11-28-2005, 02:55 PM

Villain is 42/3/0.8. Thtas all i got for reads. DO you like the flop 3 bet OOP to clear some outs? Should I just check on the turn? I thought he would bet but wouldnt raise so I bet myself with the nut FD, gutshot str8, and over. River play (pot is big)?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

McGahee · #2 11-28-2005, 03:10 PM

I think the river is close between check/call and check/fold. I don't understand the flop 3-bet though. To me, cleaning up your A outs isn't worth losing a customer when you're drawing in a 3-handed pot, especially when you're OOP with less than great chances of a free card. Besides, what makes you think UTG+2 has you reverse dominated?

Nick C · #3 11-28-2005, 03:20 PM

People behave strangely on monotone flops sometimes. But did MP3 raise the flop with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? I doubt it. I'm also having trouble, despite his looseness, putting him on a pair + missed club draw that he'll release now. If you're betting, you kind of need for him to have a hand like T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and release it. I'm not too optimistic.

That said, if I'd played the hand the way you have up until now, there's a good chance I'd fire one last desperate time and hope I at least gained some benefit from this in future hands.

Anyway, on the flop I like just calling the raise. You hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and a pure draw for MP3 doesn't seem very likely to me here. What he probably has is a king. Getting rid of UTG+2 might buy a couple of outs if he happens to have A8, but I think usually we're going to be better off if he stays in.

W. Deranged · #4 11-28-2005, 03:23 PM

1. Pre-flop is standard.

2. Betting out the flop is obviously standard. The question pertains to the three-bet. Things to consider:

a. Value: If the hand remains three-handed, you are basically breaking even on the three-bet as your equity tends to hover right around 1/3 here or even a bit higher (specifically if your As are clean). Sometimes you may actually have the best hand, but notice that when you are drawing against MP3 and UTG+2 folds, you're not in a good position.

b. Outs-Clearing: There's not much reason to raise to clean outs, in my opinion, as your As will usually be good here anyway (you're rarely up against AK and the only hand that might be dirtying the As would be something like A8s). Your backdoor and flush outs are obviously clean, and anything like two pair or a set which has redraws isn't folding anyway. I doubt you'll get a K to fold that often either, and MP3 is much more likely to have a K than UTG+2 is, anyway.

c. Promotion (kinda like Outs-Clearing): One thing you might be able to do, though, is to actually promote your hand to the best hand if you can get UTG+2 to fold a better hand (basically a non-K pair) and get it heads-up with MP3 who might be drawing. This is a somewhat ambitious parlay, though, but it's nice if it works.

d. Cost: Raising here and getting it heads-up with a better made hand is not a good outcome. It may mean your putting in extra bets in a situation where you don't have an equity edge (if UTG+2 folds), and also commits to you to betting the turn, and hence opening yourself up to a raise.

e. Fold equity: In general, if you three-bet the flop and bet the turn and encourage a fold from MP3, you are generally encouraging an inferior hand to fold. One of the things about monotone boards is that they tend to play very "true"; your opponents aren't often going to be raising hands less than top pair or a very good flush draw here. So hands like A8 and TT are not going to often be raising in this situation. Since Ks are likely not folding here, there aren't going to be many scenarios in which you encourage a better hand to fold with this line.

Therefore, since I think there are some obvious bad outcomes to three-betting here and I don't see a ton of obvious upside, I think you should just call the flop raise and reevaluate on the turn.

We should note though that in position three-betting here is probably automatic:

a. We will already know how the third player has reacted, and whether he is likely to hang around for additional flop bets. We are thus at lower risk of getting heads-up without an equity edge.

b. We have the ability to take a free card on the turn. It's very nice not to have to bet out the turn and risk spewing many bets on the turn.

c. As is generally true in position, we'll be able to extract better value out of the times we hit in position, so our effective equity is generally higher.

3. Turn play you've committed to basically by three-betting the flop.

4. River is tough. Betting is certainly not correct as you're almost never getting called by a better hand. Against an opponent with those numbers I like check-folding but I think there are many, many opponents against whom check-calling to induce a bluff is clearly right.

Jake (The Snake) · #5 11-28-2005, 03:31 PM

Call the 3-bet for the reasons everyone else mentioned and also because your implied odds will be better by just calling.

Nick C · #6 11-28-2005, 03:36 PM

By the way, although I might fire again on the river if I'd taken the aggressive flop and turn line you did, I think checking and folding is probably better.

I prefer bet-folding to check-calling, actually. Try putting MP3 on a busted draw that doesn't also have a pair at this point. It's not easy. Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Tx is about all I can come up with. I suppose T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9x is possible, but I think we're starting to stretch there. And we also need for a fairly passive player to have raised the flop with a non-nut flush draw and now to bluff the river when checked to make a check-call on the river worthwhile.

Edit: I guess Ax Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and Ax T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are a couple of other things we can hope for.

silkyslim · #7 11-28-2005, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
d. Cost: Raising here and getting it heads-up with a better made hand is not a good outcome. It may mean your putting in extra bets in a situation where you don't have an equity edge (if UTG+2 folds), and also commits to you to betting the turn, and hence opening yourself up to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
i really made a mess of things. i like being passive after the raise and check/folding the river when i dont get there. given my opponents agg factor, i dont think he is betting a draw like that and he is a passive callstation and will call my bluffs like always