Include or exclude a downswing into your stats for moving up?

[Sasnak]

I've been playing recreationally on and off for over a couple of years for fun and pulling a little out every once in awhile. Mainly playing .50/1 on Stars then started bonus whoring and playing some $25NL.

A few months ago I decided to really buckle down and learn the Limit game and picked up SSH. I earned my 300+ BB's at .50/1 in 11,000 hands and moved to 1/2. I was up a little when I went on a 200+BB downswing due to suckouts, some bad calls on my part, and a huge run of cold cards. That was the end of December, but I had the roll to handle it, so no problem.

Here's my question... I went down $400 over the course of three days in December and ended up something like -1.97BB/100. My February numbers have me at +2BB/100 over 3,000 hands and overall at 1/2 I'm at -.50BB/100 at 20,000 hands so I'm slowly pulling back out of the slump. Would you discount the sudden downswing in Black December Weekend and plan your move up to 2/4 off of the latest numbers? Or would you figure in the downswing in your overall rate and remain at 1/2 until you're 300BB's in the green overall? My BR is 1000+BB's for 1/2 right now.

[meep_42]

Are you going to take out any corresponding upswings?

I didn't think so... So, no, I wouldn't take them out, they're just part of the game.

-d

[Sasnak]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you going to take out any corresponding upswings?

I didn't think so... So, no, I wouldn't take them out, they're just part of the game.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point meep. I'm just anxious to get the hell out of 1/2 I guess. If I bled had 200BB's over the course of 2-3 weeks and was still slowly leaking I'd move back to .50/1!

But being it was Black December Weekend and my numbers have been positive since then I was looking for confirmation to toss it.

[colgin]

You may very well be ready to move up to $1/2. In fact, if you have the bankroll for it (even if some came from whoring) I would say take a shot, especially if you will move back down if you run bad. But the idea of eliminating bad swings from your stats to judge how you're doing is asinine. The nature of limit hold 'em is mindboggling swings on the plus and minus side. If I eliminated my swings where the live ones were having their way with me I would have the greatest BB/100 rate ever; conversely, if I took out the sessions where the deck was hitting me in he face I would probably have to drop down a few levels.

Best of luck in your decisions.

Colgin

[lu_hawk]

you have lost money over 20k hands at 1/2. that seems pretty clearcut that you shouldn't be moving up but you can take a shot if you want.

[dogmeat]

Sure, take em out. Take out the bad days. Pump your numbers up until you look great.

If I take two downstreaks out of my numbers for the last 14 months, I rock. In fact, I'd probably be at 4BB/100. But -
that does not make any sense. My overal number is my overall number.

So, I now say, no cherry picking!

On the other hand, you should plan your move up while you are doing well, playing confidently, and have a solid bankroll. If these are currently true, try the $2/$4. Moving up is not nearly as much about bankroll as everybody here seems to think. It's about being confident and competent at the next limit. You won't know until you give it a try.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[AncientPC]

No, don't take out your downswings.

If I took out my downswings I'd be at 15BB/100 or something outrageous . . . I need to control my tilt better. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Bellagibro]

Yeah you gotta count it. That's like the guy at the Casino who says he broke even but had a $1000 steak dinner.