Learning to fold with KT

[Spicymoose]

Villain here is 27/24/4 after 250 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

Opponent is really aggressive, but I think I am beat almost always here. Normally I call down "just to see", but I think that is a losing play.

[einbert]

Even if he almost always does have you beat, you've got 5 outs against the vast majority of his range, and position. You only need 8.2-1 with no implied odds, but you have decent implied odds here especially considering you have position.

If you call the turn bet, for the pot/implied odds, how could you not call the river bet. You would be getting 10.5:1 on your money. Surely you would be in front often (without a scary river) to make a river call correct.

Trent.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the turn bet, for the pot/implied odds, how could you not call the river bet. You would be getting 10.5:1 on your money. Surely you would be in front often (without a scary river) to make a river call correct.

Trent.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you have a hand range on villain in mind where 88/99/BS makes up 1/11.5? cause I can't come up with one. there are just so many JJ+/Ax hands he could have here.


edit: if you can't fold the river then a turn fold is a must, we can't call down profitably getting 8.5-2. I definitely see call the turn/fold the river UI being profitable.

[einbert]

Well I pokerstoved it and it is not as profitable as I thought. I do think we should fold to a river bet UI, but if we almost always win 2BB from SB when we hit, and raise and fold to a threebet vs AK on a K river, it does seem to be a marginal but barely profitable play to call the turn, with the intention of folding the river.

Then again, the hand range that I came up with might be way off.

This is a case where I often wait until the turn to raise on a blank with the intent of taking a free showdown UI.

If the turn card isn't safe, then against someone that aggressive I call down usually. In this case though, I think you're right. I can't think of what you'd beat that he'd 3-bet preflop with from the SB and then donk the turn against two opponents.

When considering that the villian has a 24%pfr his pre-flop action could indicate:

Likely hands that we beat:
KQs, KQo, KJs, 99-66

Less Likely hands that we beat:
55-44, KJo, QJs, JTs, QTs

Now considering he has a AF of 4! He could easily bluff at the ace, since he did 3 bet pre-flop. This is a good opportunity for him to bluff. Therefore it makes the above hand combo's still likely possibilities.

I haven't done all the calculations, but it seems to me there is enough times that we will be in front. We only need to be in front 8.7% of the time.

If you fold the river here I think that you would be giving up way to much. You payed to get there, why not call if a non-scary card hits.

I could be wrong, but show me the calcuations.

Trent.

Some very good points in this thread, they, however, fail to notice that this guy is batshit aggro with a huge starting range. I think you could find a river call here.