Two Pairs vs. All-in

Rooger · #1 08-17-2005, 12:26 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

UTG ($69.30)
MP ($91.75)
Hero ($55.92)
SB ($57.63)
BB ($43.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4.

Turn: ($16.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB is all-in $35.55, Hero?

How do you like the line in this hand?
I raise the flop to scare a flush draw or weak queen / king away.
I guess I'm beaten on the turn, but I can't figure by what. I don't think he completed his straight, it seems unlikely to call a raise with a gutshot (though I've seen it before).
A set of jacks? I'm getting good odds (better than 2:1), but if I'm behind, I'm drawing for four outs.

So what to you think? QJ? Overplayed flush draw? Set? Straight? Bluff?

xcrack999 · #2 08-17-2005, 12:37 PM

What's the read on villain? Would he defend his blinds with K6 or Q6?

GoCubsGo · #3 08-17-2005, 12:40 PM

Looks like KQ, QQ, or maybe AK. Even though I think you're behind a little more often than you're ahead, folding is weak. You only have to call $26 to win $71.

swolfe · #4 08-17-2005, 12:43 PM

raise to 8 on the flop

i'd bet $12 on the turn

i'd call here depending on my read...

Rooger · #5 08-17-2005, 01:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise to 8 on the flop

i'd bet $12 on the turn

i'd call here depending on my read...

[/ QUOTE ]

I follow you on the flop raise, is the $12 turn bet due to the increased pot in case of a higher flop raise, or would you bet 4/5 of the pot on turn?

Villain sat down 1 or 2 orbits ago with something like $45.34, so I read him as a donk, but haven't seen him make any spectacular plays.

swolfe · #6 08-17-2005, 01:12 PM

i'm sorry, i meant as played i'd bet $12 on the turn...75%. the reason to bet a little more is that a) i want the flush draw to pay more and b) i want to be a little more sure that a check-raise is more meritorious...a lot of players will sense weakness in a half-pot bet here and check-raise with nothing.

djoyce003 · #7 08-17-2005, 01:23 PM

you are getting over 2-1 on your call. Do we know anything about villain? Ace 10 of spades is possible here which would give him the straight...I doubt he called with ace 10 offsuit.....he could be semi-bluffing a flush draw. I think a set, KQ, QJ, KJ are all likely from a decent opponent, J6, Q6, K6 are all likely from a donkey as well as the above mentioned hands.

This is totally read dependent. Against a donkey that calls 100% of the raises from his BB this is a call..from a tight player that doesn't make a lot of calls from the BB this is a clear fold.

Rooger · #8 08-17-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is totally read dependent. Against a donkey that calls 100% of the raises from his BB this is a call..from a tight player that doesn't make a lot of calls from the BB this is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, and that's the problem of the hand - I don't know much about Villain, except for the fact that he didn't buyin completely, which makes me think that he's somewhat a donk.