late tourney hand

[SossMan]

thought that this hand was interesting because of the chipEV vs. cashEV considerations

late in a live NL rebuy tourney at garden city casino in San Jose.

We are down to two tables and are 8 handed at each. Top nine place pay. payout structure is something like this:

9 - 150
8 - 200
7 - 270
6 - 350
5 - 475
4 - 650
3 - 900
2 - 1500
1 - 3000

So, fairly top heavy, but typical. I have spent money on a buy in, a rebuy and an addon ($40 each)

also, i lost $880 in a 20-40 game while waiting for my alternate seat, so take that for what it's worth...lol

I have a below average stack of t4800. blinds are 200-400

folded to me in the button. SB has t2400 and is a little bit of a tourney newbie from what i gather. BB is a very good tourney player and has about t8k.

folded to me on the button and I make it t1k with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

SB thinks for a long time and pushes his t2400. BB folds

there is 1000+2400+400 = 3800 in the pot. It costs me 1400 to call. I will have 2400 in my stack if I lose.

Ignoring the fact that I maybe shouldn't have stolen w/ cheese from the button, can I make the call?

[zaxx19]

Your at best 32.5% to win here barely making this playable even in a ring game. If you lose doubling up still wont even put you in good postion and you are perilously short stacked with a LOOSE table image(see forget your BS steals from the button). Just lay the friggin hand. You really dont wanna show K6 here for a myriad of reasons.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Your at best 32.5% to win here barely making this playable even in a ring game. If you lose doubling up still wont even put you in good postion and you are perilously short stacked with a LOOSE table image(see forget your BS steals from the button). Just lay the friggin hand. You really dont wanna show K6 here for a myriad of reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

32.5% at best?

there's probably almost a 20% chance that I'm actually ahead.
i understand your point about image, though, and it's well taken.

[zaxx19]

Yo Soss if you believe that there is a 20% chance you are ahead....well there really is no debate here is there.

QJ Q10 J10s ....now im stumped. wheres the 20% ??

Im mean given he knows that you have odds to call a resteal with alot of hands...

[tiger7210]

I think I call here and hope he doesn't turn over AK/KQ/KJ. I don't like the idea of being left with 3800 behind if I fold and wasting 20% of my stack without seeing a flop. If he were putting you all in I would definitely fold.

As far as tble image is concerned, if you fold it certainly looks like a complete steal gone bad. If you call everyone sees it was a steal. So damned if you do and damned if you don't. If you call and lose that may help you get called by more marginal hands when its time to push which could be beneficial if you catch a big hand. So to me my table image would be of no consideration in this decision. If anything it could hurt any future steal attempts by more people playing back at you if you fold here where as calling shows you are willing to take a gamble and only a real hand would play back at you later on.

Bottom line is I call here and hope both cards are live.

[Goodie54]

Zaxx,

Read "Tournament Newbie" in the original post and you'll see your answer. Tourney newby may push with QJ J10 or Q10 or maybe just two suited cards thinking that's a good hand. A tourney newbie certainly would not know that Sossman had the odds to call.

Peace

Goodie

[SossMan]

I'll attempt to put him on a reasonable range of hands:

any ace
any two broadway
any pair
a few more random middle card hands (T9s, etc...) (see harrington's 10% rule)

there are 96 combos of Ace-middle (where middle is lower than King, bigger than 6) that I have 40% equity.

24 combos of AK/A6 that I have 30% equity.

64 combos of Ace-little (A5-A2) that I have 45% equity

36 combos total of KQ, KJ, KT that I have 30% equity

48 combos of QJ, QT, JT that I have 55% equity

4 combos of AA that I have 17% equity

3 combos of KK that I have 12% equity

36 combos of QQ-77 that I have 32% equity

3 combos of 66 that I have 34% equity

24 combos of 22-55 that I have 48% equity

I’ll give another random 20 combos of hands that I’m a 55% favorite

Given this range, my weighted equity is about 41%.

I would be ahead roughly 19% of the time, and at least a 45% favorite 44% of the time.

I’m getting 3600:1400 or about 2.6:1 so I only need to be about a 28% favorite to make it a chipEV correct call.

I clearly have that, but I guess the real question is, do the other considerations warrant passing up on this EV?

[woodguy]

I think that with 18 left and only 9 getting paid, CEV=$EV at this point.

If your range for SB gives you the odds to call, then call.

As far as I have read (in this forum) CEV and $EV only diverge when you are actually in the $$$ and every placement goes up in $$$, or you are right on the cusp of the next pay level, is this right?

Regards,
Woodguy

[drewjustdrew]

I call here. If you fold you have 3800 if you call and lose you have 2400. If you call and win, you have 7600. Being a short stack at 4-6 times the blinds is not a big difference in my opinion. You would still need a double up to get somewhere near comfortable.

An additional point is that you were in a steal position. Therefore, your opponent has to give some thought to you having absolutely nothing. If he has Ax, you should call because you still can outdraw fairly often. He may have a lot less and is taking a chance at getting you to fold.

I'm not sure what Zaxx is referring to about table image. If people are afraid that you will call their resteal bluffs, especially without much of a hand, isn't that a good thing? Won't that keep them from trying it against you? If you win the hand, you should only get people to play back at you with legitimate hands (which come up a lot less frequent than foldable hands).

[fnord_too]

I havent read the other replies yet but my first response is you have to make this call.

Also, this is very near the borderline between pushing and not on a steal. I think with a short stack and a savy player (who has you covered no less) to act, with you on the button, you need to push here if you want to steal. Personally, I'd probably muck it (as opposed to trying to steal, not once it gets back to you you for 1400 more).

Edit -- cleared up ambiguity in my last sentence