Not spewing with second best hands...

krishanleong · #1 11-16-2005, 10:21 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG caps, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (14 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

What do we think? Villian is 50/23/1.8/42 over 355 hands.

Krishan

Spicymoose · #2 11-16-2005, 10:26 AM

I think you really need to raise this turn. SB seems like he might have an overcard or two to your pair, so why let him keep his outs in a pretty big pot? Also, UTG could easily have 99-JJ, almost as often as AA or KK. Even if you are beat slightly more than you are ahead of UTG, I would rather have SB out. You two can divy up his equity, rather then use him as a buffer for your possible equity deficiency against UTG.

If SB has a weighted 4.5 outs, he basically has a 1 BB in equity of the pot. Since you and UTG are at least close in terms of equity (I think he might have slightly more than you with his range, as AA and KK seem to have slightly more combos then 99-JJ just because of frequency of playing as he is), you basically divy up his 1 BB. That means you get an instant return of .5 BB on your raise, along with whatever else happens.

stoxtrader · #3 11-16-2005, 10:36 AM

I don't love the flop raise.

krishanleong · #4 11-16-2005, 10:39 AM

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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

Wynton · #5 11-16-2005, 10:51 AM

As usual, I'm not sure how to interpret the stats. You said villian is 50/23/1.8/42 over 355 hands. Does this mean that he is particularly prone to react to post-flop raises with even more aggression?

If you think that raising the flop (or the turn) will get you into a betting war with the villain, then that seems like a pretty decent spot. But if the villain might react to post-flop raises by slowing down, then calling looks better to me, as you bring sb along too.

Spicymoose · #6 11-16-2005, 10:56 AM

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But if the villain might react to post-flop raises by slowing down, then calling looks better to me, as you bring sb along too.

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I don´t think you want to bring SB along. The pot is getting big, and we would rather have SB out of it. I like stox´s plan of waiting till the turn to raise.

ghostface · #7 11-16-2005, 11:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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SB has odds to draw to just about anything when its 2 bets to him.

krishanleong · #8 11-16-2005, 11:20 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
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I don't love the flop raise.

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Wait and raise the turn?

Krishan

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SB has odds to draw to just about anything when its 2 bets to him.

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Not really. It's a paired board so a 4-5 outers are unlikely. His most likely hands are a pair or a hand with a single overcard.

I still think a turn raise might be fine. I'm not use to pots that are very large anymore and I think I failed to recognize this one.

Krishan

#9 11-16-2005, 11:55 AM

Against this villain, your play seems timid.

I would have considered raising the turn for protection against the SB, but being aggressive on the flop is fine also. If you're going to get aggressive on the flop, I would have capped it--any particular reason you didn't?

You have to call down the turn and river with an overpair. If you run into AA or KK, c'est la vie. Statistically, he is more likely to hold a 99-JJ overpair on the flop and turn, so your play with QQ is fine.

If he sucked out on the river with JJ, oh well. You were ahead on earlier streets and should have been aggressively postured.

Wynton · #10 11-16-2005, 12:02 PM

Why is it so clear that we want to get rid of the sb? Though Krishan hasn't provided a read, sb cc two bets preflop, so I think it's most likely he has a pocket pair or something like AK, AQ. (After the flop, the pocket pair seems more likely.) Is it really such a big risk to let sb see more cards?