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Idiots Guide to Schwza\'s Math Test
A few days ago, Schwza posted a quick poker math quiz. Most of us can do the math when we have 5 minutes and a pad of paper, but estimating these numbers in 30 seconds under pressure is tough. Very worthwhile excercise
Math Quiz I made a major mistake on question #1, and realized that the way I calculate the % of time that I need an opponent to fold is way too detailed to be done in real time. So, I came up with a quick little short-cut that can be done in a a real hand. Question On the turn, it is my turn to act. I know I am behind. What % of his hands, would the villan need to fold, for a push to be correct by me? Quick and Dirty Answer 1.) Calculate the total pot if you push, and he calls. -Ignore the last 2 digits (10,000 ~ 100) -multiply by you outs (100 x 8 = 800) -double it (800 x 2 = 1600) -subtract you current stack from this number (1600-4000=-2400) This number (-2400) is your EV when called [EVc] 2.) Look at the current pot relative to EVc (drop the negative) -Fill in the blank. Pot is ____ times as large as EVc. -Pot (4000) is 1.66 times as large as EVc (2400) -Add 1, and we have our answer (1.66+1 = 2.66) I need my opponent to fold 1 of every 2.66 hands for this push to be profitable. OR I need my opponent to fold (1/2.66 = 37.59%) of the time. Work through this a few times, and coming up with estimates becomes really easy. They arent exact, but close enough for me. **If you are on the flop, rather than turn, multiply by 4 instead of 2 in step 1 |
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Re: Idiots Guide to Schwza\'s Math Test
Nice post A Plus. I'm sure this will help a lot of people.
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Re: Idiots Guide to Schwza\'s Math Test
Also just out of curiosity, how did you come up with this shortcut?
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Re: Idiots Guide to Schwza\'s Math Test
I just set up the equation that I would use to solve it.
(% of time he folds) x (pot size + my stack) + (1-% he folds) x (showdown pot x equity) = my current stack I substitutes 2 x (# of outs) / 100 = equity, which is a good guestimation method. Then I just started rearranging things until something jumped out |
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