#1
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Hand...
Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls. Flop: (5.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls. Turn: (5.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls. River: (7.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero folds. Villian was 75/16 preflop. What do we think? Krishan |
#2
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Re: Hand...
Vilain shows 45o
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#3
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Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
Vilain shows 45o [/ QUOTE ] kinda short thoughts. Krishan |
#4
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Re: Hand...
I don't think it's generally +EV for me to raise turn or later with less than 2 pair (or a great draw or to stategically try to fold another player in the pot, etc). I have occasionally gotten called down by a worse ace, but not often. Do you think he is going to call your river raise with a worse hand than yours? If he has an ace, the only aces worse than yours are A4, 5, 6 and 7. Also, these guys that play any 2 cards really can have "any 2 cards" and my ability to read what they have is dismal. A lower pair has to fold to your raise. I'd personally rather see a showdown, note what he had and play accordingly the next time around. Am I leaving money on the table by playing this way?
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#5
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Re: Hand...
I don't really understand your river plan. You only beat A4-A7 that will call your raise.
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#6
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Re: Hand...
What is his agression postflop ? Maniac side ? The flop comes and he go nuts. If the cap was 10 bets he would have capped it ... I think it's either a low set or the made str8... I don't set a lot of 76% player going nuts on a pfraiser with an ace on the board. He doesn't look afraid of the AA possibility..
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#7
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Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
What is his agression postflop ? Maniac side ? The flop comes and he go nuts. If the cap was 10 bets he would have capped it ... I think it's either a low set or the made str8... I don't set a lot of 76% player going nuts on a pfraiser with an ace on the board. He doesn't look afraid of the AA possibility.. [/ QUOTE ] What about aces up? |
#8
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Re: Hand...
You don't have aggression #s on him? If he's passive, you can bet your last dollar he flopped a wheel. If he's aggressive, you can get a few flop bets in, maybe two turn bets, but back off by then if he doesn't......and by all means, get to a showdown! I hate that river raise/fold. What's the point?
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#9
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Re: Hand...
I think a 16 pfr will raise most of them UTG ...
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#10
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Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really understand your river plan. You only beat A4-A7 that will call your raise. [/ QUOTE ] Well villian raises 16% of his hands. The is roughly equivalent to a regular 2+2er. Generally players like this tend to open raise lighter UTG and tighter on steals, but ignoring that, we can safely discount AQ+ to 5% and AJ to about 30%. It's possible that Villian won't 3-bet A6-A9 on the flop. But I think it's very possible that he'll 3-bet A4 and A5. Sets are also of course possible. So I'm behind to A2 - 6 ways A3 - 6 ways 22 - 6 ways 33 - 6 ways A8 - 6 ways A9 - 6 ways 36 hands total. I'm ahead of A4 - 9 ways discounted to 50% - 4.5 A5 - 9 ways discounted to 50% - 4.5 A6 - 9 ways discounted to 30% - 3 A7 - 9 ways discounted to 30% - 3 15 hands I'm ahead of. Sure doesn't look good. I actually formed my plan on the turn and followed through on the river regardless of the card. It's suprising what a difference a relative blank does for equity. If the 9 on the river was a K, I would be behind 30 and ahead of 18. Still not good but a bit better. 2-1 instead of 3-1. Krishan |
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