#1
|
|||
|
|||
simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
apologize if this isn't this place. wasn't sure where else to put this.
this should be really simple, but i just dont know how to set it up. no need to solve it for me, i dont want you guys doin my homework (finals today) Dealt a 5 card hand from standard 52 card deck if one king shows up, you win $10. otherwise, you lose $1 what is your EV? clarification: At least one king. having a pair or trips does not affect the outcome |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
Well, the probability of 5 random cards containing at least one king should be roughly:
1 - C(48,5)/C(52,5) = 34.1% or about 1.93 to 1. I come up with roughly $2.76 profit per "hand". |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
Let p=prob(no king shows up in five cards). It is easy to see that
p = (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) = C(48,5)/C(52,5). We then have EV = pE[V|no kings] + (1-p)E[V|at least one king] EV = (-1)p+10(1-p) EV = 10-11p |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
Fastest way is to calculate odds of not getting any K at all, i.e., do it "backwards." That's
52 cards, 4 are Kings, 48 aren't, so it's 48/52*47/51*46/50*45/49*44/48 or .66 or you will not get one 66% of the time. That means you will get one 34% of the time. In other words, it's awfully close to lose twice, then win once. I think I'm right, but if not I'll find out soon enough and learn something along with you. You want to take it from there, based on what you said? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: simple EV calculation, but I don\'t know how to set it up?
LetYouDown had it right the first time, though I didn't pick up on it til later on in the day when I realized his C stood for combination. Duh! I'll do it out with variables sine i dont have a calculator on me to speed it up. should be easy to follow along in case anyone else wanted to know how to figure somethin out like this (though i doubt it unless you're playin weird gamblin games)
x = C48,5/C52,5 EV = (1-x)(10)+(x)(-1) for some answer like $2.75 or so |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|