Yet another online poker rigged thread

[Fuchida]

This is a slightly unusual 'online poker is rigged' thread in that I am hoping for a battering from the forum that is sufficient to knock some sense back into me.

I am a part time but winning player, playing mainly Party and Bodog, and have consistently won several thousand each month for the last few months (about 30k this year so far). My intention is to go full time in August. I may crash and burn but I intend giving it my best shot and I will never know unless I try. I play mainly 3 or 4 NL Holdem tables, varying from $200 to $1000 buy-ins. Anyway, on to the rigged part.

I have had ups and downs, ranging from a 2k loss in one day to a 3k win and even several consecutive days of losses but the trend for the last 18 months has always been upwards. I have always been very sceptical of claims that sites were rigged, seeing any losses as natural fluctations.

Suddenly, three weeks ago it seemed I hit a brick wall. The losses break down into three major groups.

1) Every time I end up all in with the best hand I lose. Not just on the odd occasion but one after another and several that require runner-runner to lose. 2-3 card outers on the river are automatic hits. The bad beats are coming so thick and fast that I am now expecting to lose.

2) Cold decks happens several times per session. Set over set, losing with the best possible full house to quads, A high flush to straight flush, etc. Had about twenty of these in three days last week. I even began writing each one down, creating a diary of increasing disbelief.

3) Idiots (or apparent idiots) are calling stupidly and getting hitting almost every time. Just yesterday I had someone calling a pot size bet on the flop with 53 vs KJ4 then another vs the 6 on the turn and of course getting the 2 on the river. Calling with nothing but back door flush draws is common and runner runner flushes seem inevitable.

I have checked my play in poker tracker to ensure my percentages have not changed and I have even began recording every loss that I make on a per hand basis to identify any patterns. The vast majority of the losses are cold decks or outdraws though and I cannot see how to avoid those. However, an element of losses due to bad play are creeping in due to the tilt factor. Nothing ridiculous but the occasional pre-flop call with a speculative hand out of position or an optimistic call based on hopeful implied odds or perhaps a call on the end with a 'surely I can't have been outdrawn again' attitude when the betting pattern says I am beat. I am trying to prevent this small amount of tilt but I am only human.

Assuming I am playing reasonably and there is not some major flaw that has crept into my game that I can't see, then it comes down to three possibilities

1) I am just suddenly and incredibly unlucky. I could handle the usual 4-1 or 5-1 outdraws. Aces lose to smaller pairs all the time and idiots call with poor odds and hit their draws all the time. That is usual poker fare. However, when people are hitting runner runner outs at 20-1, 30-1, etc and it is happening several times a session for three weeks I am beginning to wonder. As an experiment I went on Ultimate Bet yesterday and everything instantly returned to normal. Occasional outdraw but I won at my normal rate. Went back on Party last night and I was Mr unlucky again. Couldn't hit a flop if it was driving past and I ran out in front of it. QQ beaten by runner runner 87 on turn and river by someone who called with an inside straight draw on flop. Large pre-flop raise with AKs. Called by 65o. Flop 655 and A on turn after flop checked. K9s on blind vs J4. I flopped a flush vs his top pair. Runner runner 4 4 on turn and river, etc. Back on UB this afternoon. Back to normal and won a thousand. Party this evening. Killed again. Am I just that selectively unlucky??

2) Party out to get me is possibility number 2. Why and how are my questions? The why may be because I take advantage of their points system by loading $500 per day to get the 1000 point reward. When I get up to $15k and 30,000 points, I wait 7 days, take it all off and repeat. A lot easier than playing hands but might be considered an exploit by party. Tenuous I know but paranoia is setting in. Another reason may be that party needs to keep the money circulating to prevent the fish losing all their money and leaving permanantly so letting the idiots win may be good for business. As to the how, I know that hand histories show that AA beats KK the right amount of times and draws only hit the right amount of times, etc but Party wouldn't be that obvious anyway. If the cards are dealt in the appropriate way, players can still be sucked in by doing the right thing. Its those cold deck situations that really concern me. The runner runner outdraws need a combination of deck-stacking and an idiot to call without the odds which seems unlikely unless you like possibility #3. However, if Party choose to penalise only certain players for some reason, the skewed number of outdraws would vanish in the great mass of stats. I could show my own hand histories for recent days but I would of course be told that my sample is much too small (and it is). Also, if Party isn't out to get me, why does reality appear to resume normal operation whenever I play on ultimate bet.

3) Possibility #3 is that other players know what cards are coming out. This would either be through hacking of servers without Party's knowledge or someone with a slightly improved version of the official client software. Yes, I know that sounds incredibly unlikely but I am paranoid remember. It would explain the calling of pot size bets on flop and turn when you need runner runner to win, which has happened an amazing number of times in the last three weeks.

Evidence I hear you cry! Where is your evidence for these ridiculous claims? The only evidence I have is 18 months of winning poker followed by the poker equivalent of the Ten Plagues of Egypt. Perhaps there are some poker playing Jewish tribes locked in the house somewhere and I need to let them go. Maybe I am expected to sacrifice my first born to the poker gods like Abraham did (although the bible reported it slightly differently as I recall).

Anyway, I digress.

Please heap scorn upon my poor, misguided beliefs and convince me that poker sites aren't fixed in any way and that you have all had months like this one and I should just pull myself together, get on with it and stop complaining about a little bad luck (well, massive amounts of bad luck actually).

I will be on Ultimate Bet in the meantime.

Fuchida

[bandfan]

variance?

[EliteNinja]

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variance?

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luck!

[Fuchida]

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variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its certainly that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Its just after 18 months of 'normal' variance I get this sudden huge hole in the road. If a few people come on here and tell me that's normal and I have just been lucky not to have had this happen sooner, I will probably feel better about it. From August poker will be paying the mortgage (I hope) so I need my recent paranoia sorting out fairly quickly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Fuchida

[silkyslim]

sounds like you got nervous because poker will be your only source of income.

[Guthrie]

I heap scorn on your poor, misguided beliefs.

Or maybe Party is out to get you.

Nice first post.

[Fuchida]

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sounds like you got nervous because poker will be your only source of income.

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I think that is probably true but I can't see any change in my play and I have done a LOT of analysis. In the last few days every dollar lost is being accounted for and the reason for losing it. (Unnecessary bluffs and bad calls account for some of it but the vast majority is after getting my money in with the best hands or apparently doing the right thing and getting burned.

I may be playing badly without realising it but I am running through the hands with poker playing friends and they would have acted similarly. Also, why am I doing fine on UB and atrociously on Party when I appear to be playing in the same way?

I suppose one possibility is that on UB the standard seems a little higher so players are less likely to call with draws and bad odds but I haven't experienced the same amount of cold decks.

Fuchida

[Voltron87]

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sounds like you got nervous because poker will be your only source of income.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is probably true but I can't see any change in my play and I have done a LOT of analysis. In the last few days every dollar lost is being accounted for and the reason for losing it. (Unnecessary bluffs and bad calls account for some of it but the vast majority is after getting my money in with the best hands or apparently doing the right thing and getting burned.

I may be playing badly without realising it but I am running through the hands with poker playing friends and they would have acted similarly. Also, why am I doing fine on UB and atrociously on Party when I appear to be playing in the same way?

I suppose one possibility is that on UB the standard seems a little higher so players are less likely to call with draws and bad odds but I haven't experienced the same amount of cold decks.

Fuchida

[/ QUOTE ]

online poker is not rigged, it's called variance, and you talk about all your analysis but you have no numbers to back it up. you're on tilt and your mind is seeing things that don't exist.

[Fuchida]

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I heap scorn on your poor, misguided beliefs.

Or maybe Party is out to get you.

[/ QUOTE ]

That isn't helping [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also my wife, who likes poker and has backed me up all the way with my full time plans has convinced herself that Party is rigged. My attempts at explaining natural variation didn't get very far and to be honest I was having significant doubts myself. Hence this post.

To be honest, just getting everything written down has helped and reading my own post helps me realise that Party out to get me does seem unlikely. Still going to play UB for a while though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Nice first post.

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Thanks

Fuchida

[Eder]

Since you seem to have been put on distribution mode at Party why not just play UB till Party resets their software on Thursday?