#1
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Odds of hitting 2 sets out of 30 flops
How do I compute this?
I've seen 30 flops with 30 pocket pairs and only hit sets twice. Would that be (1/8.5)^2 x (7.5/8.5)^28? |
#2
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Re: Odds of hitting 2 sets out of 30 flops
[ QUOTE ]
How do I compute this? I've seen 30 flops with 30 pocket pairs and only hit sets twice. Would that be (1/8.5)^2 x (7.5/8.5)^28? [/ QUOTE ] For exactly twice: C(30,2) x (1/8.5)^2 x (7.5/8.5)^28 where C(30,2) = 30*29/2 or use Excel function =BINOMDIST(2,30,1/8.5,false) = 18%. For 0, 1 or 2 times: (7.5/8.5)^30 + 30 x (1/8.5) x (7.5/8.5)^29 + C(30,2) x (1/8.5)^2 x (7.5/8.5)^28 or use Excel function =BINOMDIST(2,30,1/8.5,true) = 30%. |
#3
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Re: Odds of hitting 2 sets out of 30 flops
First of all, you are probably looking for the probability of hitting two or fewer sets in 30 flops. That number is more important intuitively because 1 minus that number gives you the probability of hitting more than 2 sets in 30 flops. In that case the answer is:
[(1/8.5)^2]*[(7.5/8.5)^28]*[(30!)/(28!2!)] + [(1/8.5)^1]*[(7.5/8.5)^29]*[(30!)/(29!1!)] + [(1/8.5)^0]*[(7.5/8.5)^30]*[(30!)/(30!0!)] = Answer If you really just want the probability of hitting 2 sets, then just compute the first term. |
#4
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Re: Odds of hitting 2 sets out of 30 flops
beat me by a minute you bastard
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