pull back?

[djr]

Party Poker 1/2 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

I've got nut low draw and the nut flush draw. Given my equity on this, I think jamming the pot is the only thing to do with this many people. Half, have to be drawing dead.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

I don't see what UTG is jamming with unless he has a set. But I have the nut low now with 9 good outs to the nut high. Even if I miss my high and get quartered, against 4 opponents capping is +EV. But should I back off given I have no low protection?

River: (33 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

well that river card blows

Final Pot: 33 BB

[Yads]

Seems good, although I don't like the turn cap. What do you think SB and MP3 are calling with? I'd probably raise that hand pre flop, but a call is fine.

[djr]

I put them on straight and/or crap flush draws.
Turned out, there were three of us with A2, the other two had 9T for the straight draw. I won hi with my two pair (luck has it's advantages).

I debated raising preflop (and usually would) but this time I decided to see the flop cheap.

[gergery]

On the turn you don’t have 9 good outs to the nut high, you have 6 outs. One of your outs is in your hand, and 2 of your outs pair the board – given the action, that would probably makes someone a boat.

So for high you are maybe 6:1 against improving but putting in 4:1. And for low you are made but will lose low 10% of the time to counterfeit and get quartered fairly often given the action here. Doing a little math on probabilities and odds I figure betting with this many opponents earns you 0.5 in profit for each BB put in.

So getting 4:1 on fresh money odds with nut low and nutflush is probably EV+ to get more money in. I’d just calibrate your expectations that its not a hugely automatic-big-win situation; just a reasonably good-win-more-than-your-fair-share kind of situation.

--Greg

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
So getting 4:1 on fresh money odds with nut low and nutflush is probably EV+ to get more money in. I’d just calibrate your expectations that its not a hugely automatic-big-win situation;

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true, but I'm reconsidering the fact that I'm the only one with A2 when MP1 and SB mindlessly put in bets when it's 2 back to them. There's a good chance there's another A2 out there.

[BradleyT]

On the turn 20BB are going into the pot - 4 from you. If you get 1/4 on the end you get 5 of those bets for a 1BB profit. If you get half you get 10BB for a 6BB profit. If you get 3/4 you get 15BB for a 11BB profit.

44 cards are left on the river. We have 6 negative cards, 32 semi positive cards (even if quartered you get 1BB profit), 6 extremely profitable cards.

Ok tell me again why people think capping is a bad play here?

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So getting 4:1 on fresh money odds with nut low and nutflush is probably EV+ to get more money in. I’d just calibrate your expectations that its not a hugely automatic-big-win situation;

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true, but I'm reconsidering the fact that I'm the only one with A2 when MP1 and SB mindlessly put in bets when it's 2 back to them. There's a good chance there's another A2 out there.

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed, but even if there is one out there for certain, you are still EV positive to get more $ in. 6/44th of the time you’ll win 2.5 bets for high (.35 BB in EV), and for low lets say you’re counterfeited some so you’ll really get 2.25 bets for low but get quartered for 1.125 bets in EV, or a net intake of 1.475 for a cost of 1 bet. Or net +0.475. Give or take.

--Greg

[johnnybeef]

id play it exactly the same, except i bet on the river. you have enough of a hand and you have jamming the hole way, no sense in stopping now. it looks like everyone was drawing considering that they all checked to you on the river. furthermore, you might eliminate another a2.

[chaos]

The problem with jamming the flop is that you do not have anything yet. Your low does not have any counterfeit protection. If an Ace or 2 come you have nothing. I would be more inclined to jam if I have some counterfeit protection. You lost yours when the 4 flopped.

On the turn you make the nut low, no counterfeit protection. Your opponent may have A2 along with you. If he has counterfeit protection he is free rolling you. It is five way action so even if you get quartered you make a little money. Your real fear is getting counterfeited.

[BradleyT]

Read Ed Millers SSHE to find out about pot equity surpluses and when to pump a draw and when to draw as cheaply as possible. This is a situation where you want to pump your draw.