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I'm sure many more experienced players than I have had this happen, but when it happened to me I wasn't sure what to do.
You're dealt Aces and flop trips, but the flop is also all of one suit. Here's the hand, thanks in advance. Live game with 6 players. Blinds are $.25 and $.10. The relevant stacks are Hero with $8 and Villain with $14. Hero in the big blind with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] . Villain limps UTG and then it is folded to SB who completes. Hero raises to $.50, and both call. Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . SB checks and Hero sees Villain start reaching for chips. Hero goes all in for another $7.50, and both fold. My thought at the time was that Villain, being very loose, would chase with as little as a 4-flush and would definitely bet out with a 4-flush plus a pair. I wanted to make Villain pay the maximum amount to chase his flush. After thinking about the hand, however, I realize how foolish that bet was. Given that Villain had a four-flush, which he did since I asked him about it afterwards, should I have given him the proper odds to chase a flush knowing all the while that I had similar odds to fill up? The way I look at it in hindsight, I had 7 outs on the turn and ten outs on the river to fill up or make quads; meanwhile, he had 9 outs on the turn and 9 outs on the river to make his flush. I think that the best play would have been betting $2.00 (just overbetting the pot) in order to keep him interested. Is this the correct line of thought or was I better off doing what I did and praying for a call? If I bet $3.50 into a $1.50 pot, then he has to pay $3.50 to win $5.00. He will make his flush about 35% of the time. Giving him 1.42:1 on his bet when he needs at least 2:1 to make his call mathematically correct IF A FLUSH IS A GUARANTEED WINNER. However, AND THIS IS MY POINT, I will make a full house or quads 33% of the time, which will counterfeit his flush. So, how do I play it when: he has a 35% chance of improving and I have a 33% chance of improving over him. What is the correct bet on the flop? |
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