Fudging the math a bit--with my trusty sledgehammer.

MastiffPaul · #1 06-12-2004, 03:55 PM

I'm unsure about my math every step of the way--except of course on the river. The table until now had been tight preflop, but suddenly I'm facing three limpers with a connected suiter. So I give it a spin...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks,

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

Interesting flop. I can rest assured someone has an ace, especially when UTG+1 bets. I can assume, reasonably, I think, that I'm facing TPTK. Unless someone else is slowplaying a set, TPTK is what I have to beat. So if I catch a 5 or a 6, I'm good. That gives me 5 outs. I have 7:1 if I call. I need slightly more than 8:1. But what if I consider both my backdoor flush and my runner-runner straight draw as... one out? Aaaaand here's where things get a little fuzzy. Six outs. I need slightly less than 7:1. Let's give it a shot.

Turn: (4 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

No one called behind me, which disappoints me. I'm cutting it so close, math-wise, that a little padding would have been nice. Of course, with the turn I now have 8 outs for my OESD. I need slightly less than 5:1 to call. And I'm safe to call... but cutting it so close. But what if I catch a 5 or a 6? The turn certainly hasn't helped the ace pair that I believe I'm facing. In fact, I don't even need to catch a 6. Let's say a 5 comes. That's 10 outs! Now I'm just stupid if I don't call!

River: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls.

Given the action I caught on the river, my implied odds were better than I thought all along. Of course... looking at his hand afterward and realizing he limped in with AA preflop, many of my outs weren't outs at all. What are your thoughts on all my ass-backward math?

Final Pot: 14 BB
Main Pot: 14 BB, between Hero and UTG+1. > Pot won by Hero (14 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 shows Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Hero shows 5s 6s (straight, eight high).
Outcome: Hero wins 14 BB.

Jaran · #2 06-12-2004, 04:05 PM

Hey Paul,
Hopefully he started bitching and moaning as you pulled the pot. That'll learn him to limp pf w/AA. As far as your play, I like it. The flop call is a bit thin, but I prolly make it also. Turn easy call. River plays itself. Well done.

-Jaran

vipchump · #3 06-12-2004, 04:18 PM

This is strange... I find myself folding bottom pair and middle pair on the flop. Should I also be calling down hands like these? Seems like 5 outs to see the turn is 9:1 and you're getting 7:1... I almost never count the backdoor flush and straight possibilities when I play. Is this a flaw in my game?

I think your play pf, turn and river are fine. I'm curious about the flop myslef. Mainly the backdoor flush and straight chasing.

Piiop · #4 06-12-2004, 04:29 PM

I think it's reasonable to count a backdoor draw on the flop as 1/2 an out.

lowroller · #5 06-12-2004, 04:31 PM

This brings up a question I have been thinking about.

How do you factor in (in terms of "outs") the backdoor flush and/or straight draws?

Jeff · #6 06-12-2004, 05:00 PM

I usually just count a backdoor flush as 1 out from the flop on if I'm doing it that way, I'll play a pair or 2 overcards + backdoor flush draw for a bet, whereas I'll fold bottom pair without the backdoor draw. Straight draws are easy - 4 outs per card. Or do you mean a double OESD (you have a 3 straight as of the flop?). I just factor that as a small bonus.

LeftBack · #7 06-12-2004, 06:13 PM

Backdoor flush is 1:23.

For calculating odds post-flop, you could probably count it as one out.

1/47+1/46 = .0430% (approx)
10/47*9/46 = .0416% (actual)

Runner-runner straight is more complicated, because you can end up either open-ended or gutshot. I'm not sure, but I'll use 16 outs for the first card, and 6 (average) for the second.

16/47*6/46=.0444%

Again, maybe give it one out.

Disclaimer: I bought the book, but I'm not sure if I'm interpreting it right.

illunious · #8 06-12-2004, 07:17 PM

I have been adding 1.5 outs for a backdoor flush based on Ed Millers advice in this thread.