QQ - fold this turn, right?

joker122 · #1 06-12-2004, 03:07 AM

No reads.

I thought this was an easy fold.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero folds, BB folds.

River: (10.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 doesn't show.
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 11.16 BB.

Guido · #2 06-12-2004, 03:14 AM

I don't think it's easy. Do you think he has trips? If so how do you think most players would play it on the turn? When you're very positive he has a J I like it but I'm not that sure after the way you played it. MP3 obviously has a draw so I would raise or fold the turn depending on what you think UTG+1 has. I don't think it's that easy but I certainly don't think it's wrong either.

Guido

joker122 · #3 06-12-2004, 03:27 AM

True. I think many players would go for a CR here, but if he's at least a semi thinking player he'll fear that I will check it through on this draw heavy board. If he was on a draw himself and used the second jack as a bluff card to get me off my overpair...well, that's some good poker.

Guido · #4 06-12-2004, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but if he's at least a semi thinking player he'll fear that I will check it through on this draw heavy board.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hope you wouldn't...

HajiShirazu · #5 06-12-2004, 07:15 AM

My experience is that they usually have the jack here, so folding is fine. Then again, I have seen a few people with a 9 play it this way...but I think if you always called down it would be a loser here.
Opponents thought process- "well I have top pair I bet, [censored], he's got me beat"
on the turn- "well I have three jacks he'll probably check it through if I dont bet since it's obvious I have three jacks, hopefully he doesnt have AJ so I better not checkraise, I'll just bet and hope he calls down"

chesspain · #6 06-12-2004, 09:20 AM

My initial reaction was "there is no way you can fold that," although as I looked at this further while my morning coffee was making its way through my bloodstream, it is becoming easier to see that UTG+1 likely has J, assuming he is a somewhat rational player.

What became clearer is that there is no drawing hand he could have which would have improved on the turn, save for some very unlikely hand like T8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which started the flop as an OESD and turned into a flush draw.

Consequently, he either has huge gonads to fire again on the turn against three others with only his flopped draw, or he has a J and is afraid that the turn would get checked through. I might call down, even though folding doesn't look bad.

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 06-12-2004, 09:31 AM

It's not as clear cut as it seems as a lot of players will usually c/r the turn with trips expecting the flop raiser to bet. However, more often than not though, he'll have that jack. Note that if the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] fell rather than the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], folding becomes a much easier decision.

adanthar · #8 06-12-2004, 10:24 AM

Based on sheer pot odds, I may call this down. Pot odds factor in because the question is "is there a 20% chance he actually has middle pair?" I've seen so many bets on paired turns or rivers by people holding middle pair/counterfeited 2 pair/an inside straight draw that I think raising those for value might even be +EV.

There are people I would fold this to, but that's not my default option (and very few of them would limp a hand with a J in it UTG+1.)

Saborion · #9 06-12-2004, 11:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but if he's at least a semi thinking player he'll fear that I will check it through on this draw heavy board.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he's at least a semi thinking player he should understand that's the exact reason you must bet this turn. Or?

joker122 · #10 06-12-2004, 11:38 AM

I'm confused. Can you state that another wya?