Another Moving Up question..

[AQheartbreak]

Hey all, Its been a while since I've posted anything, but here we go.

I'm a regular 10-20 player, thinking of moving up. I've been doing well at the 10-20, but only for a short period of time, 5-6 months. Whenever I step into the 20-40, It seems as though my win rate is the same as my 10-20. I average about 1.5-2 bbs/hr. playing 10-20. Now is it even worth the time to play a higher limit if i make the same? Or should I move up, trying to improve my hourly rate at the 20-40? Bankroll is not an issue, and a I work with one big enough to handle playing 20-40. I don't want to say I play weak-tight in the higher game, but maybe I do at times. I'm always looking to improve my game, but 20-40 is the highest they spread around here, and Game selection is top priority right? So should I move op with the some of the best players in town, or stick with what works?

I'm eager to hear your responses.

[Kenshin]

If your 1.5-2 bb/hr estimate accurately reflects your true win rate, you should definately move up. You will find very few players who can surpass that rate at any level in a b&m casino. You have the bank roll and a stellar win rate, unless the thought of 20-40 terrifies you, move up!

Kenshin

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
seems as though my win rate is the same as my 10-20.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you mean the same in dollars, not BB?

From the tone of your post it sounds like you do not have statistically significant data for 20/40.

Let's assume your expected win rate at 20/40 is correct. Your standard deviation in $/hr just doubled with the limits but your EV in $/hr is unchanged. That means a large increase in likelihood for losing streaks: periods of time where your results are so far below your EV that you lose money.

Expect a very rough ride.

The positive side of this is if you can afford the potential losses and if you can keep your head during the losing streaks and winning streaks, your game may benefit enormously from exposure to better players. In the long run you may make more money and increase your satisfaction by improving your game.

Good luck.

[Dan Mezick]

It's a function of your bankroll and your estimated variance (estimated max drawdown of your bankroll).

A good rule of thumb is 1.5 times the bankroll you usually play with expressed in big blinds at the new limit.

Say you play with a bankroll that is 200BB wide in 10-20.

200 X 20 = $4000.

At the higher 20-40 limit you want 1.5 of 200BB (that's 300BB) to cover the unknown, wider expected initial swings, etc.

300*40 = $12000.

This makes the bet size at 20-40 trivial relative to your bankroll size, allowing a level of emotional detachment similiar to what you experience now at the lower limit.

You also need at least 500 hours at the lower limit so when you move up you never return to the lower limit.

If you go in with a 200BB bankroll in the new situation, you may have to step down because of the subtle negative psychological impact being under-capitalized has on your play.

[paland]

[ QUOTE ]
In the long run you may make more money and increase your satisfaction by improving your game.


[/ QUOTE ]
Or you will lose and end up homeless sleeping in the woods. But at least you gave it a shot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[AQheartbreak]

Ok thanks a lot guys. I was planning on making the move next month or so. I think i should play the smaller game for a while, and give myself a tune up before stepping up again.

Thanks
Eric

[LetsRock]

Here's my take on moving up in limits, doesn't even matter what limits we're talking about.

There's 3 important factors to consider when moving up: your BR, your emotional reaction to higher limits and the possibility of a tougher game.

If you have sufficient BR to take on a higher limit game, then it seems to be the right thing to do if the other 2 factors will not affect your earnings.

Having a sufficiant BR should help us to NOT be intimidated by a higher stake, but I'll be the first to admit that the first few orbits at higher stakes make me nervous as hell. I'm not a high risk taker and betting twice as much as I'm used to feels dangerous. I focus very hard on looking at it as SBs and BBs - the dollar values don't matter. But, for a while, it is still very scary to bet these bigger amounts, and that can lead to playing too tight. If that's not a problem for you, again, if the other 2 conditions are favorable for you, then moving up seems like a good move.

We all associate higher limits with "better" play. I havn't advanced high enough to find this to be true (I've stuck my toe into the 5/10 game and find this game to be populated with fewer "good" players than the 2/4, 3/6 games I normally play. Unfortunately, cold cards crush my BR enough that I have had to step down and rebuild.) You indicated that the 20/40 game is no tougher for you than the 10/20 game. If you can make the same BB/hr at the higher level, then again, if the other 2 contitions are favorable, then it makes sense to move up. Even if the $/hr is the same,(you were'nt clear if your results were equal on a BB/hr or $/hr) it makes sense to move up, because as you improve, you'll likely increase your BB/hr which will equate to higher $/hr. IF the table is a little tougher, then you need to make the call if it a profitable situation for you. Can you make enough while "learning" the players at this level for it to be worth it? Will your game inprove if faced with a more challenging table, or is your game the best it's going to be? I believe that we all have room for some improvement, but I also believe that some of us have a plateau that we may never get beyond - there are just some strategies that we either don't understand or don't have the stomach to try. We can't all be the best. If you're at your plateau and you honestly don't think your game will improve well enough to compete in a tougher game, then be smart enough to know yourself and stay where your game is good enough to be profitable.

If any one of these conditions is a problem, it's probably best to wait until all are met since any one of them being a problem could lead to diasterous results to your BR.

Another thing to consider is (okay, there's 4 things to consider!): Why do you play poker? If it's strictly for money, then improve your game to be able to keep advancing. If the money is secondary, you just enjoy playing and winning, then stay where it's "fun" for you.

[AQheartbreak]

Wow man, thanks for the advice. You gave me lots of insight i would'nt have thought of. I am taking the shot at higher limits, and i'll let you guys know how I'm doing along the way. Thanks all.

[Dov]

The recommended minimum bankroll requirement is 300BB - Big BETS, not Big Blinds. You need $6K for 10-20, and $12K for 20-40.

According to your 1.5x theory, you would need $18K for 20-40.

IMHO - I think you should just keep watching the game for a while, until you feel comfortable joining it. If it looks good one day, jump in, especially if bankroll isn't an issue.

Since you are already a 10-20 player, I assume that you moved up before. As you probably know, the move will come in 3 steps:

1. You are a 10-20 player who sometimes plays 20-40

2. You are a 20-40 player who sometimes plays 10-20

3. You are a 20-40 player

Do not hesitate to return to 10-20 if you get whacked, especially if you don't know why. Moving up can take months, but it will be worth it in the end.

Good Luck

[AQheartbreak]

hey dov, where have you been? its "Azn" Eric