% of back door flushing

[Avatar]

As the title says,
What % of the time will someone flop 3 to a flush and hit two more of that suit on the turn and river to complete their flush?
Thx.

[DeadRed]

Without knowing any other information on other cards or stipulations like not pairing the board, etc, the probability of making the runner/runner flush is (10/47)*(9/46) or ~ 4.16%. It is almost exactly 1 out of 24 tries.

[Avatar]

wow that poor eh?

[beerbandit]

"9)BACKDOOR FLUSH
The odds of completing a backdoor flush are 23:1. David Sklansky has written that you need 27:1 pot odds to call a flop bet with just a backdoor flush due to the times you will also have to call the bigger turn bet. Drawing to backdoor flushes when your hand has no other value is a common way for many players to lose money."


Per Dynasty