When to worry about a losing streak

[thedorf]

Hi,

After roughly 270 hrs of play, I had been beating my local 5/10 B&M holdem game for about 2.1 BB/hr and was feeling fairly invincible. However, I just got off of a 2 session (12 hrs total) losing streak. Part of me says that losses happen and I probably shouldn't worry too much about it. Another part of me, though, says that $750 is a lot to lose in such a short time.

I'm not one to willy nilly blame cards on my failures. I don't take written notes on specific hands but usually take a lot of time going over hands in my head after each session. After an average session (my average session is about 10 hrs.), I can usually think of about $30-$70 worth of mistakes that I've made based on what I consider to be my best game. The most I can attribute to bad play in this latest 12 hr. losing streak is about $100-$130. I've read most of the authoratative books on holdem, and think of myself as being pretty good at changing gears depending on who is playing in my game. In my earlier days I was somewhat prone to tilt but have realized how deadly it can be to an hrly rate. Therefore, I strive to play my very best game whether I have won $1000 or lost $350 and have come back several times after losing a substantial amount.

Here are some things I would like to know:

If you are a 1 BB/hr or better grinder like me, what is the worst losing streak you've ever come back from? Didn't come back from?

I realize that 2.1 BB/hr is quite a lot to ask for and don't necessarily expect to maintain such a high rate. But, what are the chances that I'm not even a 1 BB/hr player? What are the chances that I'm not as good as I think I am and am really just a tight fish (I.E. a tight player who should expect to do maybe just a little better than break even, if that?)

I haven't gone completely gun shy but I am a bit fearful that the next time I play, I'm just going to get drawn out by junk. I don't want to play scared. Is there anything you do to mentally prepare yourself after returning from a big losing streak?

I talked about not taking written notes on hands. Am I just shooting myself in the foot by neglecting this? Do I need to take written notes and analyze them if I expect to maintain a high hourly rate through months and years of play?

I suppose that's enough for now. Thanks for any input. Good luck.

[DcifrThs]

most of the time, a 75bb losing streak is not a big worry, if the rest of yoru game is sound. i've had a 150bb losing streak at 15/30 and came back from it handily. i was able to go over my written records and see that a good portion of the loss was attributable to a combination of draws not coming in, putting alot in on draws (playing draws as a limp late, gets aggressive on the flop and turn, and having to fold with nothing to a bet and raise ont he river- or having it heads up and being first to act betting as a bluff that only needs to work once in a blue moon to be correct- i.e. only me and the button left), and having to either pay off or fold down the river (check raised by straightforward plying opponent when random card pairs- passive gets aggressive etc. etc. ). even though i may have saved a bet here and there the combination of those three as a result of a short term fluctuation can be KILLER even if you make 0 mistakes. add a few poor decisions and you're game is now looking not so hot.

you need to be able to attribute that loss though! if you don't take written notes then maybe you should start. at the end of a session i try to break down every big bet won or lost and say, "ok, i won $575. how much was due to saving the pot for myself, how much was due to draws coming in, how much was due to straight normal play etc. etc?" this process doens't need to take very long if you're attentive throughout the session.

75bbs isn't that much...but in 12 hours in a b&m game it might be. just go over your game and don't ply scared.

i LOVE getting drawn out on. it shows i picked the right game...just gotta stay focused. i may say "ouch" but i'm thinking, "score!!!". here's one hand to show ya from last night=

SUPER loose SUPER aggressive guy in bb, whole table is nice and loose except for 1 2+2'er 3 to my right, who odly enough was also limping after 1 limper in middle with 6d5d. so i get AsJs and raise, get 4 cold callers (about par) 2+2'er folds, sb calls BB (Superloose Super aggro) 3bets we ALL CALL. flop comes AhJd3c. beautiful. aggro bets i call (looking to raise turn in this big pot and save it down the river) its raised "all in" behind me for $23, somebody completes to $30 and we lose 1 player. turn blanks and aggro bets, i raise 1 cold caller and he calls. river falls beautiful 9h making it AJ3x9. aggro checks i bet cold caller folds AGGRO RAISES and i call. he flips 99 to take down an over 26bb pot. one in which i personally invested 6.5bbs.

it happens...that guy made the game better by his presence so i just chalked it up and kept on playin.

hope this helps...good luck
-Barron

[LetsRock]

IMO, A 2 session "losing streak" isn't all that bad. 75 BB in 20 hours is pretty severe, but I've experienced worse.

Making 3-7BB worth of mistakes in a session seems reasonable - you're only human and it's good that you recognize when you could have done something better.

I try not to focus on streaks, so I can't say how long it's taken me to "come back" from bad streaks. That being said, I've had bad stretches that have lasted nearly 2 weeks (with a couple of break-even+ games sprinkled in) and it can take some work to rebuild the BR.

Since you're playing B&M, I'm guessing you play against many of the same players a lot of the time (this is more typical at B&M than on-line). The only thing I would suggest is the possibility that some of them have started playing you differently - they may have book on you and have adjusted their play a little. If this is true, it will take some work on your part to mix up your game.

It's entirely possible that it IS just bad cards (it is still a game of luck you know) and you just have to stick it out.

The thing that concerns me most about your post is that you admit to a higher rate of mistakes (10-13BB vs 3-7BB) which does suggest a bit of tilt, despite your claims to have that under control.

I think, the more detailed you can be in your record keeping, the better off you are. I beleive you can plug leaks faster if you have a solid accounting for them. If you have a particular hand that gave you fits, I think it would help you make a note of that hand (so you don't forget any of the little details when you're mulling it over), but for the most part, for me, notes are most important for making a book on regular players.

Just keep making good solid decisions and you should be back on track in short time.

[harboral]

I think a 75BB loss is substantial over just two sessions. But twelve hours of poker at B&M is probably just 400 hands - that is a small sample size. Although I mentioned this in an earlier thread and had several people dispute this idea - I believe there will always be "corrections" to your win-rate over the course of a month or longer. If you are running very well, you will probably also experience a few sessions where you run badly and your overall win rate is "adjusted" to a more accurate number. You may find that it takes quite a while to get back 75BB. I have had these swings, everybody has. If you go back to play and "assume you will get drawn-out on by junk - don't change your play. If you do, and get timid and start calling instead of betting or raising, your streak will continue. AL