Betting Odds vs. Pot Odds- Kind of long

[arfsananto]

I have a question on use of card odds to bet vs. pot odds to call. Actually, it is more "this is how I think it works, am I right" than a question.
First I have to make a couple of assumptions.

- Based on various sources, I have decided that with a straight draw, with no other outs, I need 6 bets in the pot to call.

- I have decided to treat flush and straight draws as both being exactly 2:1 underdogs with 2 cards to come. I know this is not accurate, but feel it will average out over time.

- For this particular scenario, I feel that if I make my straight, I will win the hand.

Here is my scenario.

I have 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on Button.
Folded to CO who limps, I raise, SB, BB, and CO call.
8 bets in pot.

Flop is 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

1. If SB and BB check and CO bets, I can call, because I have correct pot odds.

2. If CO checks, then I can bet only if I am very sure that all will call, because I need 3 bets to my 1 bet to be getting the best of it.

3. I do not feel that there is a greater then zero chance that everyone will fold to a bet, so I can't semibluff; a bet would be purely for value.

4. So this is a situation where I can call a bet, but I can't bet out (unless I am somehow sure that all will call).

Do I have all this right?

Thanks for all input.

[illunious]

I would fold preflop, on the flop I'd bet/raise it 100% of the time. Two overcards and an open ended straight is probably a favorite to win this pot.

[Paul Talbot]

Even if you wont drive anyone out you should probably still bet or raise. You may have 10 outs. You may be able to take a free card. You may fool everyone when you keep betting when a seemingly innocent 9 or 4 hits (maybe getting capped action from A3 who puts you on an overpair).

Lastly, you DO NOT have correct pot odds to call an inside straight in the hand you posted (ignoring your overcard outs). You have correct IMPLIED odds to call.

If you have an inside straight draw and are getting 8:1 but will not collect anymore bets if you hit, clearly you should not call.

Regards,

Paul

[arfsananto]

I understand what your saying. I had meant to make it an open-ended straight draw, with no overcard or any other outs. Would this situation change your answer any? What if the pot were smaller?

Thanks

[Paul Talbot]

If for some reason you knew that your only win was making the inside straight you could call here at 8:1 but only because you expected to pick up those 3 extra SB's on the turn and river. If you do not hit it on the turn, you cannot call one more card.

Furthermore, at 8:1 you are really on the edge of profitability. Lets say you hit, get bet into, you raise and he folds. You won, but you only gained 2 more small bets so you put money in on an 11:1 shot that only paid 10:1. Plus, you will sometimes get sucked out on on the river when someone backs into a flush or full house and sometimes one of your cards will get counterfieted and you'll split the pot.

When you are at 8:1 or 7:1 immediate pot odds and you have an inside straight draw, you need to be able to quickly decide how much the hand will actually pay off when you hit it. You have to base this on how the table and your oppoennts are playing and what cards you put them on. In the case here drawing to a small straight, you may very well not get anymore bets because overcards are not going to call your raise (this also means of course that you might wait until the river to pull the trigger depending on how you read your opponents hand and tendencies).


Regards,

Paul

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
- I have decided to treat flush and straight draws as both being exactly 2:1 underdogs with 2 cards to come. I know this is not accurate, but feel it will average out over time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you would be better off if you counted a straight as 3:1.


In your scenario, you should nearly always raise with your hand. Not only do you have a straight draw, but you also have 2 overcards (meaning you could easily have 14 outs instead of just 8). A raise will hopefully fold other peoples overcards (and maybe even fold a small pair) and give you a better chance to win should you catch a 7 or 8.

You also have the button, so a bet or raise will often buy you a free card on the turn making it an even more attractive play.

Contrast this to having your hand on a board of 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], in which case you would usually like to get to the river as cheeply as possible.

[crockpot]

this is all basically right, but you need to get a little better than the 2:1 you list, because there is some chance you will hit your draw and still lose. this is particularly a concern when your draw is tainted (the board is paired, or two-suited if you have a straight draw). on examples such as this one, you must also consider that your overcards may be good, so you may have more than 8 outs.

for more on betting odds vs. pot odds, visit my website (link in profile) and check out the beginner's guide to odds essay.

[arfsananto]

Thanks everyone. Lots of good advice. I understand better now.