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#1
12-12-2003, 05:22 AM
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What\'s the calculus on this deal?
I wasn't involved in the deal but it took place 3-way in a Stars $100 NL tournament.
The chip leader had T63,000 the other two each had 28,000. They changed the payout from: 1st 2400 2nd 1600 3rd 960 to: 1960 for the leader and 1500 for 2nd and 3rd. Who can tell me a way for figuring out if this is a good deal or not. Shane 
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#3
12-12-2003, 06:40 AM
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Re: What\'s the calculus on this deal?
[ QUOTE ]
The chip leader had 63,000 the other two each had 28,000. They changed the payout from: 1st 2400 2nd 1600 3rd 960 to: 1960 for the leader and 1500 for 2nd and 3rd. [/ QUOTE ] The correct numbers are $1,931, $1515, $1515. Yes, it looks like a very fair deal.
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#4
12-12-2003, 09:34 AM
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Re: What\'s the calculus on this deal?
It isn't that bad for the chip leader, as he's not guaranteed 1st place. His chip equity is worth $2.062. The chip equity for the each of the other 2 is $1,449.
Looks like a reasonable deal all around. This is based on the fact that they're all guaranteed at least $960. so they're actually playing for the split of the $2080 remaining. If the chip leader has a 2/3 chance of winning (50-50 on 2nd or 3rd if he doesn't win), his EV would be $2,100.
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#5
12-12-2003, 12:16 PM
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Re: What\'s the calculus on this deal?
[ QUOTE ]
The chip leader had 53% of the chips but only got 40% of the pool.Bad for him good for the others. [/ QUOTE ] Do you understand why this is completely wrong? Even if the chip leader got first place outright, his BEST possible result, he would only have received about 48% of the remaining prize pool. Thus, it is obvious that under no circumstances was he ever going to get 53% of the money. And it's just as obvious, that since if played out he will sometimes NOT win, a fair deal must be something LESS than first place. The way to calculate these things is to estimate or calculate each player's chance of finishing in each position, multiply that chance by the corresponding prize, and add up the figures. So, if prizes were $3, $2, and $1, and my chances of finishing each the 3 spots are 50%, 40%, and 10% respectively, a fair deal would give me $2.40 ($1.50 + $0.80 + $0.10). Simply put, unless you're in a winner-take-all event, a fair deal ALWAYS results in proportionally less money than your chip count if you're the chip leader. Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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