Question on target player stats and readiness for tougher games

[EasyTiger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making just over 1 BB per table. About 1.2 actually. This is appalling to me. I'm sure an expert player can easily cover 3 BBs per table per hour and possibly quite more.

So, I think I'm in a short term bad luck streak. Here are my numbers for today:

36% flops seen
33% win percentage if flop seen
13% hands won

[/ QUOTE ]

I noted this quote in the "Heads up and short-handed" section (to put the above stats in context). What would be a reasonable target at a table of 10 players in a reasonably soft game?

Also, when will I as a beginner know that I am ready to move up to a tougher level/higher stakes game? (what would be a good sample size if this decision is to be based on playing stats?)

I'm sure there will be a variety of viewpoints and I am looking forward to your comments

[crockpot]

i do not believe that your results in low-stakes games are always an accurate indicator of how you will play at 5/10 and above. the reason is that the games are just too different. perhaps if you tried out playing a good amount of time at paradise 2/4 against some of the better players there, you could get a relatively cheap estimate of what higher limit games are like. i would then say you're looking at at least 100 hours to get a good picture of how you're doing.

[crockpot]

one more thing: do not pay attention to your stats from a small sample size of hands. if you want to get valuable results, go to www.pokertracker.com and keep a running tab with the software there.

[Yeknom58]

There are all sorts of facts and figures you can use but I say the best way to find out is to try. As long as you have the bankroll I say dabble a bit in the higher limits to get a feel for the game.

If you get your butt kicked...you're not ready.
Also please PLEASE remember, if you're getting you ass kicked it's not bad luck it's YOU.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making just over 1 BB per table. About 1.2 actually. This is appalling to me. I'm sure an expert player can easily cover 3 BBs per table per hour and possibly quite more.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. A good player at high limits will make 1 BB/hr. At mid-limits, an expert player MAY make 1.5 BB/hr, but that is VERY high.

[ QUOTE ]
So, I think I'm in a short term bad luck streak. Here are my numbers for today:

36% flops seen
33% win percentage if flop seen
13% hands won

[/ QUOTE ]

Your stats indicate a GOOD luck streak rather than a bad. Your flop percentage is much too high. Tighten up your preflop standards and shoot for somewhere around 25% for now. Your win % if flop seen is also a little higher than you will experience over the long-haul. Your overall win % is much higher than you can expect longterm. If you have tight PF standards, expect it to be somewhere around 7 or 8 percent.

Overall, just looking at your stats, I'd guess you need to tighten up preflop. You're definitely running good right now, not bad. With your win% where it is and you only making 1.2 BB's/hr at low limits, I'd say you need to work on your post-flop skills. Check out the Small Stakes forum and post some hands. You're probably either missing bets or you're going too far with your hands.

[EasyTiger]

Thanks for your input GuyOnTilt.

Incidently, these aren't my playing stats. I just quoted them to get some indication of what to aim for on a table of 10 players (which is what you have helped me with anyway, thank you).

Just want to confirm 2 things:

* Are the numbers you quoted for a 10 player table?
* Secondly, is it the norm to include flops seen where you posted the big blind in % of flop seen?

Thanks,
et

[RydenStoompala]

If you're giving us the truth and you are consistant at the 1+ BB/hr level, what's the problem? Short handed is slightly different at low limits, but not so dramatic that it should mess up your long-term stats. For me, and for friends of mine with the same experience (couple of hundred hours at low limits before a move up) the change to mid limit poker was a real thrill. First of all, all that stuff that Sklansky and Malmuth write about turns out to not only be valuable, but important to survival. I would classify my first three hours in mid limits as "funny." My hard-ass poker cowboy ego got the living poop kicked out of it. My draw down was only a few hundred but I folded the best hands three or four times in a row as two pros just knocked me out so they could play against each other. Once I got better, I found the 10-20 and 20-40 games much more enjoyable than 4-8 and 5-10. In fact, the low limit games, while sometimes very profitable, are so different that you have to be careful when you change gears to mid limits.

One more rant and I'll stop blabbing: My experience at poker university was much better in Las Vegas than elsewhere. I found that by playing against a lot of pros and very experienced amateurs, I learned quicker and got much more comfortable playing in other locations. I'm sure the same is true for AC and certain California locations where the players are serious. It is viewed as "terrifying" by some of my local poker friends to be seeking experience in Vegas, but it shot me right past my friends in skill.