Should I bet?

[Collin O'Mahon]

A friend has proposed a bet. I have been playing Holdem for a few months. I had a bankroll over on Party Poker of $130 as of Friday. I played from Friday through Sunday (about 3 hours a day) on a single $3/$6 table and managed to increase my bankroll to $592. I have not played played seriously in either a b&m or online room as yet.

A friend owes me $1,300. He has bet me that he will pay me $4,400 if I increase my profit from $3/$6 Holdem on Party to $10,000, within exactly one year. I can deposit up to $2,000 in this time period. But I must make a profit of $10,000. If I fail to do so, then I get nothing from him at all.

Is this a good bet? I realize that I don't have enough data to draw a conclusion about my own playing ability (perhaps), but is this a good bet based upon your experiences in ring games?

Thanks in advance,
Collin

[stock53]

NO! There are so many reasons that I won't even list them.

[Copernicus]

Unless you are able to play 30-40 hours a week I would think you have very little chance. You are talking about profiting 1600 big bets which will take a player with a big edge 800-1600 hours of play.

If you are inclined to take the bet on the merits of your ability here is a minor hustle you can use to enhance your chances greatly: Clearly lay out all of the terms of the bet, but define the outcome so that rebates of rake from a deal with an affiliate are includable in the outcome. Eg "Collin wins the bet if his account balance reaches $10,000 + the amount of any future deposits made by Collin by 9/25/04, such future deposits being limited to $2,000".

Since the rebates are not deposits made by you, they would be eligible under these terms. They could reduce the amount you would otherwise need to win by...someone can probably give you a better guess than this...$2000 or more.

[Collin O'Mahon]

Let's make the (correct) assumption that I don't NEED the money. I.e., I can lose the $1,300 and $2,000 comfortably. I just want to make a positive EV trade.

Thoughts?

[Collin O'Mahon]

What is this "rebate of rake" that you mention? Can you explain? Does Party Poker have such a thing?

[shemp]

I'd be willing to bet 3.5 times whatever I owe you that
someone trying to weasel out of a $1300 debt today will
find a way to weasel out of a $4400 a year from now.

Your parlay includes you winning and friend able and willing
to pay. I mean, if you're up ten grand at Party, why do
you want more money from me, your friend, who can't afford
it?

Lastly. Your results thus far are meaningless/misleading.
Whether you are a small dog, huge dog, or favorite to win
is as yet unknown. You likely have an enormous amount to learn, and how quick and costly (compared to $2K) the
learning process goes -- well, you really only have your
friend's opinion: not bloody likely (and he may know
something).

[Copernicus]

There are certain affiliates who post here (search for "eugenell", i think thats how you spell it), who earn a % of your rake if you sign up through them, and will rebate half to you. However, thining more about it would require you to somehow manage to open a "new" account at Party which is against their TOS. If you were going to try this I would suggest modifying the terms to allow you to build the stake to $10,000, including allowing transferring existing balances to another site (in case Party dries up, lol), and do it legitimately with an affiliate who will rebate.

Without the rebate I wouldnt touch the bet with a ten foot pole (unless you are allowed to play in tournaments as part of the deal). Quintupling your stake + 2000 add in within a year of part time play and before ruin in a 3/6 game just doesnt sound feasible to me. And if you have the skills to do it in 30-40 hours a week of play, I would think you could make a lot more than 10k plus the bet in other ways.

[Louie Landale]

Shemp got this one straight.

If you are a comfortable favorite in the games you can figure to make 1.4bb/hour or $10/hour. That means it will take you 1000 hours to earn $10k. A typical work year is 2000 hours. So even if you ARE a favorite, are you really going to work that hard?

One thing you may want to do is to GET the $1300 from him, then make the bet.

For the unethical: get a "friend" to loan you $10,000 by logging into the site and playing you headsup no limit poker, and deliberately letting you win.

- Louie