playing against a wacky player

[kelvin474]

.5/1 blinds at Party.

I am in MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Three limpers to me, I limp. Button also limps, blinds complete/check.

6 ppl, who chase and overplay their hands, to the flop of A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me; I ($45 stack) bet $15, button (also $45) calls, everyone else folds.

Turn comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I move-in, get called.

Am I winning or losing, and if i'm losing, is it a set or a flush? results to follow. also, I made the large bet when the flush hit because i thought this player would call with worse two-pairs, and maybe even AT or AJ if he has (any) heart.

[kelvin474]

River comes the delicious A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I show the Aces-full, and button flips over 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the flopped flushdraw/gutshot and turned flush.

I figured on the flop that it's almost breakeven for the button to call $15 if they always win when they make a straight or flush on the turn, AND they can get the rest of my $tack when they do. However some of the outs are poisonous, like the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The button's going to get killed if that comes on the turn, since he's not the type to be stopped by a paired board.

Come to think of it, apparently I'm not the type to be stopped by a flush board when I have 2-pair.

[ArtVandelay]

I think your play on the hand is okay. I'm not sure what your reasoning was in betting double the pot on the flop, and I think you should consider check-folding on the turn when the flush gets there. Almost any hand that calls the $15 flop bet instead of raising all-in is either trapping or drawing, and you are now losing to both. You know the player better than I do, so maybe getting stacked here is unavoidable, but here's the thing. If your opponent really had Ax or a weaker two-pair, then given the depth of the money and your overbet I suspect he would push all-in on the flop rather than give himself a difficult decision if one of the about 20 scare cards comes on the turn. On to the button's play.

I think this is a great illustrative hand for playing powerful draws in big bet Hold'em, so (as much for my own education as anyone elses) I'd like to work through the details (I know that how I play draws is one of my relative weaknesses). My first instinct is to push all-in, but let's see how the three different options play out, given what you actually held.

Folding gives button an E.V. of 0, so that's our base-line. If the button pushes all-in you will almost certainly call. The button now has 401/990 equity in a $97 pot, netting him an E.V. of 39.3-45 = -5.7. However, if you fold he picks up an immediate 22, so it would seem like a great raise if there's almost any chance that you'll lay down or if you'd call with just a pair or just a straight draw say. However, if you also make this play (and then call) with just a stronger flush draw then the raise sucks, because the button has 27% equity or worse.

Finally, suppose the button calls. Since you pushed all-in even when the flush got there, we'll assume you'll push all-in on every turn card (you might just check if you fill, but that's a small considerations, becuase if that's your plan then the button will figure out your hand). If a blank hits the turn then the button will still only have 12 outs (or less given your holding) getting 67:30 on a call, which is not enough. However, if he pairs or if an offsuit 8 or 9 hits (the first giving him 2, maybe 5 more outs and the second giving him probably 3 more outs), then he'll probably call (although when he pairs he's still wrong by half a percent because you already have two pair). Thus the best play after calling the flop is probably to call all-in on the turn if he makes his straight or flush or if he picks up extra outs and to fold otherwise.

Given what you actually held, the break down is this. There are 45 cards left in the deck. On the 7h he wins the pot 1/44 times (he now has a straight flush draw). On the 4h he wins the pot 41/44 times (one of your house cards gives him the straight flush). On the only 7 flush cards he wins the pot 40/44 times. On the three remaining straight cards he wins the pot 40/44 times. When he hits one of his 6 pair cards he now wins the pot 13/44 times, and when one of the 6 offsuit 8's or 9's hits he wins the pot 14/44 times. On the other 21 turn cards he folds. Ugh. So after all this play the expected size of his stack is

(1/45)(1/44)*97 + (1/45)(41/44)*97 + (7/45)(40/44)*97 + (3/45)(40/44)*97 + (6/45)(13/44)*97 + (6/45)(14/44)*97 + (21/45)*30 = 43.6.

His stack right now is 45, so calling and then acting appropriately on the turn gives an E.V. of -1.4, given what you actually held. Wow, so in fact his best play is to fold given that you hold 2 pair. I'm really surprised by this, but I guess it's a result of the money being short. Certainly if you had like 60 behind instead of 45 he'd have a call, although not by much apparently (E.V. of +.9 by my calculations). Yep, my instincts were wrong (although it's unfair to always give you two pair here... but even so...).

Good luck.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a great illustrative hand for playing powerful draws in big bet Hold'em

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what you showed w/ your analysis of that hand is that playing those powerful draws sucks when the money is shallow! Another reason it's sometimes annoying to play against a bunch of short stacks.

[kelvin474]

I love it when we break out the mathematics- it sort of makes me think i CAN learn to make proper plays. I need to practice thinking about these calculations in a general way at the table so i dont get caught with my pants down at the table.

You were analyzing the flop play. You said it's unfair to always give me 2-pair, so I'd like to try to tackle the situation in which I have lets say, AJ, from the button's perspective.

If I have Aces let's say, I don't think I'm going to get stacked if the flush card hits, because i'd be less confident that the only thing to avoid was a flush. I'd have more concern about 76s or A(turncard)s in that case. With Aces-up, I don't fear two-pair on the turn.
If I don't even have Aces, I don't bet that flop as strongly as I did.

BTW, the reason I made the bet I did on the flop was an attempt to wreck even the implied odds from a flush draw, as I thought a set was improbable. I thought I had bet enough that 76s or an Ace was likely holding for opponent. That they didn't push allin I attributed to being on Partypoker.

If I only have an ace, the button will probably have to be satisfied with what's in the pot when his flush arrives. If he makes the straight without the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he's probably going to stack me if I have AJ.

Mathematically, If I have AJ (no hearts) and button has 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], on that A76 board with two hearts, I bet double pot ($15).

It's $15 to win $22 or so if a non J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] heart comes on the turn.

It's $15 to win $22+my other $30 if a non-heart 4 comes on the turn, and probably the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] also, since that would be the situation where I DID move-in in the actual game (top 2, flush draw completed.)
It's going to be damn expensive if no hearts fall on the turn or river. I will probably push allin unless a heart comes on the turn, although I'm not sure about that if it were a 5 or 8. Especially an 8.

On the flop, of the 45 unseen cards, 8 are checkfolds by me. So there's a 8/45 chance that a call is +$22.

There is a 3/45 chance a four will fall on the turn and the button will win $22 and $30 more (bust me).

There is a 1/45 chance the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will fall. If it does, let's say I'm going to move-in, and the button's going to call (with his flush). I then have four outs to a win.

So the expectation if J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is the turn card is
(1/45)*($52*(40/44)-$45*(4/44))

With 6 turn 5's or 3's, the button is going to get moved-in on by me, with 9 hearts, 4 4's, and 5 (fives or treys) to make a winner. He should call that bet ($30 to win $67 and 26:18 odds against).

If button misses the turn completely, he only has his heart outs and his 4's, so when i push all-in, he's going to be with 31:13 odds against, being offered $67:$30. It's negative expecation to make that call. so he should fold if he gets no turn help whatsoever and i push all-in.


Any other turn card creates no more river outs for the button.

I'll tally up the expectation of a flop call by the button:

Heart,not J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] : (8/45)*($22)
J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a non- [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4: (4/45)*($52)
Five or trey: 6/45*(18/44*$52 - 26/44*$45)
Something else: 27/45*(-$15) <--because his best play is to fold to my bet.

Tally it up: I get EV of a call is < -$1.17.
So a call is a mistake if I have AJ with no hearts and plan to move allin if I make at least two-pair even with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or if a heart doesnt fall.

Combined with your analysis, it looks like he needs to fold if I have an Ace that I feel comfortable moving-in on with a brick-looking turn, as well as if I have two-pair. So he almost certainly should fold to:

two-pair, A-decent kicker, higher flush draw, and a set (didnt do the analysis but he's clearly worse off against a set than against Ace-decent kicker.).

This now makes me wonder, is that $15 looking so ridiculous as a flop bet after all? It makes it incorrect for him to call against a wide variety of hands. Perhaps $15 or more even is correct against this draw, but I really am going to get crushed by a set.

Art, do you think that betting big to kill off a flush draw is correct or am I missing out on hopeless calls by pair hands with no flush draws (and getting pot-stuck against sets) too often with this size bet?

[kelvin474]

The call is slightly worse than I state in my post, because I can move-in against a made flush when the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, and still river him with an A or J (similar to what happened in the actual hand). It looks like I am going to do better with only the one pair than with two-pair, because I won't be as tempted to push all-in when a flush hits but I can also lose to two-pair.

Of course if he's sitting there with a pair but no flush draw, I need the two-pair since that way i have him drawing real thin to trips (or dead, if his pair is also one of mine).

[ArtVandelay]

I don't think the flop bet is clearly wrong, but I do think in general you should probably bet a little smaller. With a smaller bet you are more likely to nail a weaker made hand, and you are more likely to get a draw semi-bluff raising (which would be a pretty bad mistake becuase you're calling anyway). The real thing is, I don't think you have any reason to suspect you're against a flush draw... if 6 people see a two-tone flop then the probability that one of them has a flush draw is, uh... about 1/4 (hmm, I'll do a quick post on this), whereas it's much more likely (I think) that someone flopped a weaker made hand. However, if you think you'll never get away from the hand no matter what comes (and it is tough with the money this short), then maybe you are better off betting a little bigger. I think 15 might be overdoing it, and 10-12 seems a better range, but I'm not all that experienced in no limit anway. Good luck.