Interesting ESPN article on trends "Separating Truth from Fiction"

[jedinite]

Starts here

Those new to handicapping should be aware of some of these trends. Primarily, in my opinion, the strength of % wins of teams who commit less turnovers. These are factors which can be included in to the handicapping of your games, especially in finding valuable underdogs (underdogs who are good at not turning the ball over, against a favored team who does turn the ball over more often). Look at Jacksonville at Cleveland this week - the Jags are taking the ball away on average once per game, and the Browns are giving the ball away an average of .5 per game. Despite Cleveland's traditionally strong record at home, and despite Jacksonville playing without their starting QB and starting RB, the Jag's turnover advantage over the browns is a significant factor in their being favored in this game.

Summarized:

Taken from the NFL's 2003 and 2004 regular-season statistics -- here are five leading sins of the game that are indisputably (did we mention amazingly?) and undeniably true, more often than not. Here, then, is the key to the matrix you never knew existed. The percentage in parenthesis refers to the probability of losing when committing that particular sin.

Five sins:

Sin No. 1: Trailing after the first quarter (75 percent lost)
Sin No. 2: Losing the turnover battle (81 percent lost)
Sin No. 3: Allowing a 100-yard runner (75 percent)
Sin No. 4: Allowing more sacks (70 percent)
Sin No. 5: Losing time of possession (67 percent)

And now the five myths:

Myth No. 1: Fewest penalties wins (54 percent)
Myth No. 2: Highest average per carry wins (55 percent)
Myth No. 3: No. 1 conference seed advances to Super Bowl (50 percent)
Myth No. 4: A 300-yard passer usually wins (46 percent)
Myth No. 5: A kick or punt return for a TD means a win (42 percent)

Here's a little more detail culled from each of the "sins"

Sin No. 1: Trailing after the first quarter (75 percent lost)

While so much emphasis is placed on the fourth quarter and a team's finishing power, it's really how you start the game that matters. Teams that found themselves trailing after the first quarter lost a staggering 75 percent of their games in '03-04.

Sin No. 2: Losing the turnover battle (81 percent)

This is a tried-and-true truism of the NFL -- what's surprising is the gravity of the number. Lose the turnover battle and you'll lose four games out of five.

Sin No. 3: Allowing a 100-yard runner (75 percent)

In 2004, teams that featured a 100-yard rusher had a collective winning record every single week. During Weeks 6-9, the overall record was an astounding 32-1.

Producing a 100-yard runner usually means that team has actually had the luxury of methodically handing the ball off. And thatsuggests the team is playing with a lead, which, in turn, means that passing is not a necessity.

Sin No. 4: Allowing more sacks (70 percent)

This statistic, upon reflection, fits into the matrix. The flip side of a 100-yard runner is a team desperate to catch up. When teams are forced to abandon the run, opposing defenses can rush the passer with abandon. This usually results in increased sacks and all the bad things that come with them.

Sin No. 5: Losing time of possession (67 percent)

Possession, they say, is nine-tenths of the law. But in today's NFL you'll have to settle for seven-tenths. OK, to split hairs, 6.7-tenths.

Dallas (33:30) leads the NFL with Kansas City (32:26) and Denver (32:21) second and third, respectively.

Yeah I found this article to be pretty interesting. I was pretty shocked to see that ESPN was suprised that when your QB throws for 300 yards you are actaully more likely to lose. To me a QB throwing for 300 yards mean you were playing from behind the whole time or don't have a balanced attack.(also assured your RB won't get as many carries as the oposing teams, one of the sins in football according to the article) I was also pretty suprised to number of carries for a RB affects the game more then YPC for a RB. Overall an interesting read.

[dankhank]

you have to wonder how meaningful these stats are over just two seasons, and when you have seeming inconsistencies where a 100 yard rusher is a winning trend, but a higher avg per carry is a losing one.

[jedi]

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Taken from the NFL's 2003 and 2004 regular-season statistics

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Sample size is too small.

[VarlosZ]

With the exception of the second one (losing the turnover battle), those five "sins" aren't actually things that cause teams to lose. They're merely the natural results of being the worse team and playing from behind.

The myths are more interesting, but, as has been pointed out, the sample size is quite small.

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Myth No. 1: Fewest penalties wins (54 percent)

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I can't dig up the cite right now, but I've read that prior to the '90s, the more penalized team consistently won well above 50% of the games. Presumably, this is because they get away with more penalties in addition to getting flagged more often. I don't know what changed that caused the trend to change.

[LotsOfOuts69]

These stas are misleading, most of these stats are created because you have the better team and you are winning.

its like you said, if you are winning, you run the ball more = 100 rusher.

If you are losing, you pass the ball more, = 300 yard passer amd more times getting sacked.

If you have the ball longer, you have your offense on the field more = more points.

Everyone knows that if you turn the ball over less you win more games, half the teams in the league are so evenly matched that the game turns into who makes less mistakes. the jets went to the AFC semi-finals on this basis alone last year.

Basically none of these stats are surprising, and they are just a result of a better team beating a worse team. they wont help handicapping at all.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taken from the NFL's 2003 and 2004 regular-season statistics

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Sample size is too small.

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This should be 512 games. Although you may not be able to achieve significance with the figures that are around 50% such as the penalty myth, you certainly have enough data to conclude the higher % trends are true. I'm too lazy to do the significance calculation, but from observation, 512 should be enough for most of the conclusions.

[craig r]

The "100 Yard Runner" one bugs me the most. It is along the lines of when an announcer or ESPN says, "Every game Yteam has won Xplayer had a min. of Zyards rushing. Well, a team that is ahead is more likely to run the ball in order to kill the clock. Since they are the superior team, they tend to be up more in the 4th quarter, hence they will run the ball more.

craig