KK... Ace on flop

Pacific.. $10NL... 05/10 blinds
Hero has $28
Villain has about $15

Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP
Villain leads for .70
Hero raises to $3
All else fold, Villain calls.

Flop ($6): A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero leads for $4
Villain raises all-in

It is $7 to call... pot is now at $21

Hero ???



(I called)

[Maulik]

3:1 call...

Villain shows QT

...catches ten on turn.

This is getting ridiculous.

[Godfather80]

...folds. You are 10% to win if he has an Ace. Villain raised preflop UTG and raised an Ace high flop. I'm willing to say that he has an Ace 85% of the time here. 5% of the time he'll have TT or 55. And the remaining 10% he'll have something you can beat (but he'll be 10% to catch up). This is a fairly easy fold.

Sidenote: if this villain is bad enough for you to actually be getting close to the 33% equity you need, you'll be able to find a better spot soon. Don't sweat this one.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
3:1 call...

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes this a call, Maulik?

I'm thinking this should have been a fold too.

The $10NL table full of Donks inspired me to call. Any other higher stakes and I would have definitely layed it down.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking this should have been a fold too.

The $10NL table full of Donks inspired me to call. Any other higher stakes and I would have definitely layed it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that the table is definitely full of donks. I've played those very tables while building my roll (yes, it is ridiculous, but I built from $100). My point here is that a donkey filled table is more likely to call your preflop raise with Ace-rag than a decent table.

In this case, your call was correct, but overall you win money at these tables by patiently betting your lock hands. These guys will all pay off. There is really no reason why you should pay them off.

I'd bet he has A,10, or 10,10. I'd fold. He knows you have a strong hand, you have bet it strong on the flop and still he is betting into you. What don't you understand??

[GrunchCan]

I agree that this is a fold in this spot, but it's much closer than you imply. If the opponent has an A or an under-set as frequently as 75% of the time, this is a +EV call getting 3:1 on the all-in.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that this is a fold in this spot, but it's much closer than you imply. If the opponent has an A or an under-set as frequently as 75% of the time, this is a +EV call getting 3:1 on the all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. I noticed that when looking at villain's different hand probabilities. It's too tough for me, however, to distinguish that finely (ie between 75% and 85%). So, I erred on the side of caution and gave villain little credit for creativity.