My folded to river bet % is super high- help?

#1 11-27-2005, 02:37 AM

Preface: I only have about 11k hands in my database, about 500 of which I was facing a river bet. I am aware this is a small sample size, but my % is so high I think it is a huge leak.

My folded to river bet % is 62.9%: 312 out of 496 times. Most stats posts I have seen have this stat in the 30% range. I play primarily at .5/1 on pokerstars, if limit/site matter. I see many in this forum advocating "calling down", but I always assume my opponent has me beat and hate putting in more $ when I don't believe I have correct equity in the pot to call. I have posted 3 example hands for comment.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (2.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.25 BB

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (11 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

admiralfluff · #2 11-27-2005, 02:40 AM

You should bet all of these flops and turns. Doing so will lead to people betting into you less on the river, and you won't have to fold.

I'm guessing your play is fairly weak-tight.

ghostface · #3 11-27-2005, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You should bet all of these flops and turns. Doing so will lead to people betting into you less on the river, and you won't have to fold.

I'm guessing your play is fairly weak-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, check you aggression numbers. They need to be about 3, 2, 1.5 on the flop, turn, and river, respectively.

#4 11-27-2005, 02:55 AM

My agg #'s are 2.42, 2.86, and 2.64. I gues I am not aggressive enough on the flop and too aggressive on later streets? The higher later street #'s also shows my lack of calldowns. These differences may be because of sample size though.

Weatherhead03 · #5 11-27-2005, 03:21 AM

Hand 2 is killing me. Bet the flop 100% of the time. When checked to again bet that 1000% of the time. Call the river.

#6 11-27-2005, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is killing me. Bet the flop 100% of the time. When checked to again bet that 1000% of the time. Call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you run me through your thought process here? I'm assuming this bet is to take it down right there? I just call if I get CR'ed?

Hand #2 was probably not a great example, as I would normally bet that flop, but it seems like my PFR -> flop bet always gets called or runs me into a CR. Maybe I'm too weak tight.

ghostface · #7 11-27-2005, 04:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it seems like my PFR -> flop bet always gets called or runs me into a CR

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing scared is tilt.

Weatherhead03 · #8 11-28-2005, 03:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is killing me. Bet the flop 100% of the time. When checked to again bet that 1000% of the time. Call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you run me through your thought process here? I'm assuming this bet is to take it down right there? I just call if I get CR'ed?

Hand #2 was probably not a great example, as I would normally bet that flop, but it seems like my PFR -> flop bet always gets called or runs me into a CR. Maybe I'm too weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

First reason is that the hand is a HU. There is a very good chance that AK is still the best hand and giving a free card is not what you want to do. Another reason why is that a majority of the time you bet this flop BB will fold and you take down the pot right there.

After he checked to you again on the turn you can be almost certain sure he doesnt have AK beat. Bet the turn and hopefully take down the pot. If he does have a 6 or a 9 and is too scared to bet you still have 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and 4 Tens to draw to.

MyTurn2Raise · #9 11-28-2005, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You should bet all of these flops and turns. Doing so will lead to people betting into you less on the river, and you won't have to fold.

I'm guessing your play is fairly weak-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

river aggression is very reflective of folding too much...however, you are setting yourself up for that by the lack of continuation bets. Remember, your opponent also has a 1 in 3 chance of non-paired holdings making a pair or better on the flop. Often, your AK-Ax holdings are a 'made' hand compared to what your opponents are holding.

gonzopro · #10 11-28-2005, 04:32 AM

*grunch*
Your main problem is not folding the river - at least in these hands. Hand 1 and 2 I bet the flop and turn and probably the river(read dependent). Hand 3 I bet the flop or ck raise the flop but never ever ck call.

See this link about continuation bets.

That being said, remember that everytime you lay down the best hand (in a big pot) it is a huge leak. Much less than calling one measly river bet

See this Ed Miller article