pot protection, equity and a vulnerable two pair

mterry · #1 11-25-2005, 07:12 PM

No reads or Gametime+ up yet.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP2 folds, Button calls.

River: Will post later.

Questions:
1) PF: I usually think 1:7 is enough to call pre-flop with this hand. I would expect UTG+2 is call-reraising less than 10% of the time here. Comments?

2) FLOP: I couldn't decide to c/r to protect, or value bet to collect money from highly likely mp draws. Against two random opponents, pokerstove says my equity is 60%. However, on the turn that is going up or down significanlty. Given that I bet, should I three-bet for value or wait until a safe turn to bet again, as I did. Is it close?

3)How's the turn?

Nick C · #2 11-25-2005, 07:52 PM

I doubt your equity is as high as 60 percent on the flop (your opponents' hands are not random), but I do think you should have an edge. Since you're out of position, I think you might as well go ahead and 3-bet, unless you want to try for a checkraise on a turn card you like.

Button's turn raise worries me. (He cold-called on the flop, and his raise on a blank turn indicates he probably isn't drawing.) KQ (16 combos) is sort of a popular preflop cold-calling hand, and TT is also possible.

All the same, your 3-bet does let you face MP2 with two cold, and you could still be ahead of, for instance, Button's AJ.

private joker · #3 11-25-2005, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Questions:
1) PF: I usually think 1:7 is enough to call pre-flop with this hand. I would expect UTG+2 is call-reraising less than 10% of the time here. Comments?

[/ QUOTE ]

Still not enough for me, I'm afraid. J9s I'm calling, because I think you need at least 2 of (a) high card strength; (b) suitedness; (c) connectedness. In this, all you got is (c).

Plus, you are out of position and will be up against a PFR that might have you crushed.

mterry · #4 11-25-2005, 09:22 PM

I got called on the river by 78, but I don't think anyone cares too much at this point.

How often does one c/r the flop? Does anyone take my line on the flop and turn? I couldn't c/r the turn b/c of the passive 3/6 players' tendency to check behind here.

Off to Foxwoods.

Mike