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  #1  
Old 11-23-2005, 06:55 PM
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Default set on flop, calculating odds.

I have PT and Poker Ace, and am now focusing on taking the time to calculate odds and figure no better way then to go through PT and take the time to calculate the odds on random hands. I decided to drop to .25/.5 to focus on gaps in my game, and although the suckouts and passivity is killing me, it's forcing me to discipline myself since I know I should be able to win at this level (Fundemental Theory of Popker). This is from a set of 2's on the flop.

PokerRoom .25/.5

Seat 1: BB
Seat 2: UTG
Seat 3: UTG+1
Seat 4: UTG+2
Seat 5: MP1
Seat 6: MP2
Seat 7: MP3
Seat 8: Empty
Seat 9: Button - Hero [ 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
Seat 10: SB
ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($0.15), BB posts blind ($0.25), MP2 posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 checks, MP3 folds, Button - Hero calls $0.25, SB calls $0.10, BB checks.

Although I've tended to start folding pocket deuces in early position, no one has shown strength and with this many limpers, I'm hoping for a set. If I don't hit a set, I'll fold to a bet.

FLOP [board cards 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $0.25, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Button - Hero bets $0.50, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25.

I hit my set. The only possibly made hand I may be losing to at this point would be someone with pocket fours. Although PT has the others as passive, I doubt anyone would have limped with pocket Q's. I'm putting the others on top pair or a flush draw. I raised to chase out the SB and BB who limped. I doubted that the previous limpers would fold, and by representing a hand, hoping that the flush draw and/or Qrag would fold on the turn if they don't improve.

TURN [board cards 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Button - Hero bets $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50.

The only hand I would see improving is someone playing a Q8s which is possible at this level, but I'm still ahead. Everyone checked to me as I hoped, so I lead out and bet.

RIVER [board cards 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, Button - Hero bets $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 bets $1, MP2 calls $1, Button - Hero bets $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50.

Now I didn't expect that many callers on the turn, but the missed flush makes me feel my set holds up. The bet on the river has me baffled, but I continue raise and then reraise.

1. Was my postflop/preturn thinking correct or should I have simply called since raising would still have given the flush draw the needed odds?

2. Should I have simply called on the river since the better hadn't shown strength at all throughout?

3. Any other errors in betting or reading the table?

Thanks.
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  #2  
Old 11-23-2005, 07:12 PM
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Default Re: set on flop, calculating odds.

So you lost the pot to 56o?

MP1 was getting 12:1 to see the turn to hit a gutterball 3, then he turned 4 more outs. Both calls were correct if that was the case.

Losing huge pots to running straights is frustrating, but that's poker.

Am I wrong?
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  #3  
Old 11-23-2005, 07:25 PM
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Default Re: set on flop, calculating odds.

please please please use the converter for this, or type it in proper format. It's really hard to make out the betting.

Preflop, flop and turn are 100% standard - I'd also reraise if raised on either street. They say if you don't lose a lot of money on a set, you didn't play it right. That's true here - no board pair, no flush, only one possible two-card straight. Only a bigger set or 56 beats you. No bet or raise by the turn tells us we can probably rule out the higher set.

Of course you've got callers: on the flop there's a flush draw and wheel possible, so anyone with a club, A3 or A5 is still in. With that many callers, 56 also has odds to chase for a 3 - by the turn they've picked up a double-belly-buster, so same thing there (not that they probably cared about the odds anyway).

By the river, 56 is the only thing I'd be worried about at all, and MP2's donk after being so passive leads me to believe he probably had it. The raise is questionable, the cap is a mistake. MP2 can't possibly think he's going to fold anyone, so he's probably betting the straight. I call the initial donk and expect to lose.
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  #4  
Old 11-23-2005, 08:07 PM
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Default Re: set on flop, calculating odds.

[ QUOTE ]
I call the initial donk and expect to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise the donk, cuz I see this way too much from a scared AQ or a junk 2-pair like Q7, and just call a 3-bet.
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  #5  
Old 11-24-2005, 08:34 AM
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Default Re: set on flop, calculating odds.

Thanks. It was 56o. The frustration was from his initial limp. Looking at Lost wages odds chart after, I realize he did have the odds after the flop with all the limpers into the pot.

I had tried to use a hand converter, but keep having the problem of the bets transferring, but the cards not transferring.
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