AA hand

betgo · #1 11-14-2005, 05:34 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB (t785)
UTG (t2750)
UTG+1 (t1445)
MP1 (t1395)
MP2 (t3020)
CO (t1330)
Button (t1980)
Hero (t5315)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t50, 2 folds, MP2 raises to t150, 2 folds, Hero raises to t450, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP2 calls t300.

Flop: (t1000) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t2570 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t3570

Results in white below: 
No showdown. MP2 wins t3570.

wiggs73 · #2 11-14-2005, 05:37 PM

Standard I think. I don't see an under pair doing this and I don't think KT, QT, or JT would have played that way pre-flop. I would guess you're behind and probably don't have many outs.

locutus2002 · #3 11-14-2005, 06:04 PM

Heartbreaker.

The only hands you're beating are TT, AK, and air.
It's more likely that he has a superscared two pair.

woodguy · #4 11-14-2005, 06:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's more likely that he has a superscared two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So he's raising a limper PF w/ KQ/KJ/QJ ??

I say TT and AK are more likely than these holdings, especially with that bet.

JJ & QQ are also somewhat likely given the push, but I'd have him on a set or TT/AK rather than 2 pair.

If we give him the range of KK,QQ,JJ,TT, and AK you are actually a 54/45 favorite to the river.

Call.

Why didn't you bet the flop?

Regards,
Woodguy

Exitonly · #5 11-14-2005, 06:15 PM

Why did you check the flop?

locutus2002 · #6 11-14-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So he's raising a limper PF w/ KQ/KJ/QJ ??

[/ QUOTE ]

It's early in the tournament; anything is possible. The PF raise is an isolation play, not a win the pot play, KQ, KJ, QJ are possible.

I can see checking the flop with the intention of c/r a reasonable bet. It's hard for villain to miss this flop.

villains hands:

9 ways for a set
27 ways for 2-pair
12 ways for TT,AK
22 ways for a str8

Who knows what villain's overbet means, but it doesn't have to mean the bottom of the range.

It's early, hero will get other opportunities against this villain, I'd let it go.

#7 11-14-2005, 07:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exit only has identified the ringer.... WHY check the flop...

do you just conceed everytime two broadway cards come on board.

Granted, you may be beat... a bet on the flop is, at the very least, a defensive bet... but you have to fire.

I doubt this player goes all in with a set or A-10 here.

Benal · #8 11-14-2005, 07:29 PM

That flop check is odd. The only time I'd take that line is vs an very aggressive player hoping to induce a bluff. If that was your thinking here, you have to call.

betgo · #9 11-14-2005, 07:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exit only has identified the ringer.... WHY check the flop...

do you just conceed everytime two broadway cards come on board.

Granted, you may be beat... a bet on the flop is, at the very least, a defensive bet... but you have to fire.

I doubt this player goes all in with a set or A-10 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, 2 broadway cards didn't hit; 3 did. Secondly, checking a dangerous board as the preflop raiser is not conceding the hand. I could be trapping.

If you bet, what is your intention if you get action? If you make a reasonable sized bet, you are getting kind of pot committed. You probably have 6 outs if you are behind, so it might be hard to fold.

Since I was OOP, it seems reasonable to check and see what my opponent would do. I don't see the point in always betting.

Analyzing the odds. it might have been better to call the push. I could also have bet out and been willing to put my money in. This was a 5-table SNG rather then a big tournament, which made me more reluctant to flop with a big stack. Also, I read the push as likely to be a set or 2-pair not wanting to get drawn out on with the dangerous board, although villain could be behind.

The following is an analysis of reasonable hands villain oculd have. KK, QQ, and JJ give sets and are ahead 4-1. KQ, KJs, and QJs give 2-pair and are ahead about 5-3. AT and T9s are straights. KTs, QTs, and JTs are significantly behind 2-1 with pair plus open ended. AK, AQ, and AJ are behind 5-1. Lower pairs and suited connectors are way behind.

betgo · #10 11-14-2005, 10:56 PM

After looking at the odds on this, I think I need to put my money in on this flop. I have a lot of outs if I am not ahead. A set or straight is not that likely, so villain probably has one pair or two pair.

I am not sure if checkraising or leading out is better. I am not a fan of always betting out. I think I needed to call the push the way I played it.

This was kind of an unusual situation and I think I misread where I stood verus villain's likely holdings.