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#1
11-15-2005, 01:18 PM
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My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) converter
Button (t1520) SB (t5555) Hero (t3135) UTG (t3290) Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1470</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font> Call 870 to win 2570 and get ITM. Button's certainly pushing a wide range, that I'm still almost certainly behind, and the 40-65% of the time I lose this I'm in 4th and in bad shape. It's pretty clear mathematically that I shouldn't fold unless the button is unbelievably tight, but is there any merit to occassionally letting these go to preserve FE for when I'm able to attack? 
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#2
11-15-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
the blinds are 900 total!
u can't let him add 900 to his stack... u only have 2500 after posting the bb, and 2200 after the sb next hand... he'll have 2500 after stealing this blind from you... u are gonna be 4th if u fold this hand... u are getting 3-1 odds on a button pushing a widdeeeee range of hands when u only have 4bbs left urself and the pusher only has 2 folding here would be a pretty big leak
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#3
11-15-2005, 01:28 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
[ QUOTE ]
is there any merit to occassionally letting these go to preserve FE for when I'm able to attack? [/ QUOTE ] I think so. But at these blinds, you'd need to change your thinking to "WHEN I attack". You have only 4bb's after folding...next to no FE after another swipe through the blinds. I play the turbos myself - these bubbles DO suck (had a 600/1200 last night!). It's becoming a crap-shoot regardless. Passing on a call is fine, but you CAN'T pass on any open opportunity. With that being key, your decision should be aided in knowing your opponents calling ranges. The looser they are, the more you have to consider these marginal calls (understanding that they are 'any two'ing like you).
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#4
11-15-2005, 01:42 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
I think it's fine to pass occasionally on a call with these stack sizes, but not when you're holding king high. There's too good a chance you're ahead here.
The only way I could see passing occasionally in this specific instance is if your opponents are way abnormally tight/passive. FWIW, I knew the type of situation this was going to be based on the thread title. These spots really suck. They suck worse when you're holding 75 or something though.
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#5
11-15-2005, 01:44 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
Easy call.........
Can't afford to miss this opportunity.....
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#6
11-15-2005, 01:59 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
There is a damn good chance that he is pushing any two (any decent player will). K6 might be in decent shape considering his range... that combined with the pot odds makes this a call.
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#7
11-15-2005, 02:03 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
[ QUOTE ]
the blinds are 900 total! u can't let him add 900 to his stack... u only have 2500 after posting the bb, and 2200 after the sb next hand... he'll have 2500 after stealing this blind from you... u are gonna be 4th if u fold this hand... u are getting 3-1 odds on a button pushing a widdeeeee range of hands when u only have 4bbs left urself and the pusher only has 2 folding here would be a pretty big leak [/ QUOTE ] I'm going to be 4th with some FE vs calling and losing where I'll be 4th with very little FE. There are considerations at play here (how likely am I going to be able to steal after this hand given the potential stack sizes I'll have, how large the blinds are, the relative size of everyone's stacks) that I specifically didn't address for this situation, because I'm more interested in how people deal with this general spot. Reduce Hero's and villain's stacks a bit and drop the blinds and you can build a similar scenario where the blinds don't represent quite the impending doom they do here, for instance. [ QUOTE ] I think it's fine to pass occasionally on a call like this, but not when you're holding king high. There's too good a chance you're ahead here. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think K6o is going to be ahead here all that often, and certainly not ahead of villain's range. And it's virtually never going to be way ahead. Not that that especially changes anything given the odds I'm getting.
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#9
11-15-2005, 02:21 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think K6o is going to be ahead here all that often, and certainly not ahead of villain's range. And it's virtually never going to be way ahead. Not that that especially changes anything given the odds I'm getting. [/ QUOTE ] I understand that ICM is very flawed here given the lost FE should you call and lose, but ICM-wise, you only need to win ~30.1% of the time here to break even. I would guesstimate that K6o will be in the ballpark of 48%ish against his range.
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#10
11-15-2005, 02:35 PM
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Re: My least favorite bubble situation ($27)
I would call this one. The worst thing that can happen is that he got a pocket pair (in which you may not be that much of an underdog since you got your K) and if he has a K with a better kicker (worst case). I'd call since I honestly think I'm taking this one down more than 50% of the time. He is going after the blinds.
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