big holes, or just unlucky?

[hoopking]

just lost over $80 in .5/1 on empire trying to clear bonus.about 200 hands. im aware that this game is difficult to beat, but is it possible to break even with a tight game? pots ave $9 to $12, about 40-50% see 4th. most bet or call to river unless aces pair or 4 flush shows. i lost 5 of 6 trips, 3 of 4 flushes so that accounts for much of the loss. i dont think my aces improved once to win, even heads up.my questions should i fold aces heads up or vs 2 with nothing showing, or do i bet or call all the way knowing my opponents will call to the river with just any pr? in this game isnt it correct to bet with trip q to showdown? what about trip 2? should i check a flush on the river if any raises earlier in hand? yesterday i was up about $35. and im sure i could have saves a few river bets. its just hard to to lay down a decent 2 pr when guys bet and call with crap.

[Andy B]

Empire is/was Party, right? So that game has a $.25 ante, which is absolutely ridiculous. I have some thoughts on the beatability of the Party $.50/1.00 game in the FAQ. The high ante alone won't make the game unbeatable. Two hundred hands is way too small a sample size to draw any conclusions from. I'm sure that if I played that game regularly, I would probably have a $80 skid at some point, assuming I didn't kill myself first.

I wouldn't fold a pair of Aces heads-up unless the other guy gave me a reason to. Trips are worth betting on the river more often than not, be they Queens or Deuces. If you check a flush on the river, it should usually be with the intention of raising. Two pair is enough to pay off with on the river more often than not. The pot is usually big enough that you don't have to win very often for calling to be profitable.

It was Party - they alienated the skins and put them on their own network, which is rapidly dissolving now.

As for the rest, 200 hands is just a small sample size. Stud is a game of high short-short-term variance (think 500 hands as opposed to the "short-term" variance of Hold 'em, which is about 5,000 hands).

[hoopking]

do u think it is better to tighten up even more if this game is on the agressive side? it seems like every time i lower my standards a little, i get killed. i dont understand how players who routinely call to the river when a tight player pairs their door card or are showing 3 to FL can not go broke, but it seems to work. i went on to loose another$40 clearing the bonus. i only saw 4th with big pairs, 3 suited, live small pairs(either 2 suits with srt8 potential or good kicker). i got out at 5th if i hadnt improved unless i was betting my big pairs. i think i ended up winning only 2/9 trips that didnt improve and lost at least 1/2 my flushes. it wont take many days like this to send me running back to holdem where i am break even. thanks for the reply.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
only saw 4th with big pairs, 3 suited, live small pairs(either 2 suits with srt8 potential or good kicker).

[/ QUOTE ]

My god. What a rediculously tight range for this game.

I rebuilt in this game a number of times after I blew my whole bankroll.

The secret to actually being able to beat this particular game is to play damn near EVERTHING.

If you have (7K)A in EP and your A and K is live, RAISE. If your have a live pair and a live kicker, play it. Raise it. It doesn't matter if you have 227 YOU MUST PLAY.

It cost 9 BB to see 32 hands. This is 4 times what playing a typcial 5/10 game costs (in forced bets).

Play any hand, with any hope. Only fold when you think your are drawing dead.


Literally, the play ever hand better than J98 strategy is better than your tight strategy.


I'm not trying to be harsh, but it is amazing how LAG you have to be to beat such an over ante game.

[hoopking]

with at least 1 player and usually 2 other players staying to show, and no bluffing potential, how can u beat this game without atleast slightly better starting hands?if 1/2 the players at the table are playing and staying with just about anything, it really becomes a matter of luck. i guess im missing something. i have tried to loosen up a few times and got killed. your strat would definately work if there is only 1 or 2 very LAG players at the table along with an idiot and a few tight players, but when 50% see 4th and stay with any pair. joining the parade is relying on luck and lately i dont seem to have much. i do appreciate the perspective and maybe if i only play 1 table at a time i can adjust my game better to each table.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
but when 50% see 4th and stay with any pair

[/ QUOTE ]

When a bunch of people see 4th you'll be getting good odds...so you can play more hands.

Also, many people will stay with hands that don't include pairs.


Here is a simulation for you ::
You have AK8 rainbow
An opponent has 664

You'll still win about 40% of the time.

Ensuring that you stick around for that 40% of 2 BB (in antes) is very important.


You are right that you'll rarely get heads up, so the example isn't spectacular. I'm just trying to illustrate that even a hand that you'd never play (for value) at 5/10 is a money winner at .5/1


Rememeber, your KK is going to have to play 3-4 opponents with any pair/3-flush/straght-draw/bare A. That is alot of draws to dodge. And because of the horse-race concept your KK isn't as big a money winner as you'd think. So why restrict the hands you're playing to just "ok" hands.


Lets say you have KK. And you get 4 opponents. Each opponent will win the pot 15% of the time. This means that they are all money losers (they have to win 20% to make money)

So, your KK is going to win 40% of the time. This means that you lose 60% of the time. If you do the math that means that you'll win about 3BB everytime you get KK is a situation like this.

But the problem is that you'll ante off alot more than 3BB waiting for this hand. AND your opponents will have better than 15% chance to win.

[MrBlueNose]

Get used to the swings. In loose games with high ante, you're going to have some nasty swings and either get used to them, or get out. Its not uncommon for me to lose 50BB in the space of 10 hand at the site I play at(which is $2/$4) due to the looseness(80% seeing 4th). Just gotta grin and bear it as it is a great way to make zee cash.