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#1
11-09-2005, 08:52 PM
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Chip spewing or calculated call?
Villian is a bit of a maniac and I think he may be on tilt at this point. He just lost a big pot two hands ago. He'll play any two and raise pre-flop aggresively with them. I don't typically make this kind of call, but here's how I figured it and please correct me if I'm wrong.
Best case for me: My Ace high is best (he's bluffing) Next best: He matched a 6 (so I'm ~40% to win) Next best: He has OESD or flush draw Next best: He has a King or Queen (I'm ~28% tp win) worst case: He has trips (I'm ~17% to win) So I assign a heavy percentage to first two categories and call here. Anyone else call here, or will the typical 'I'll wait for a better spot' come up for most players. I don't mind taking small edges so I think this is a good play, but I am slightly nuts. Side note: I usually raise more with this hand pre-flop (I think it was a misclick actually - not sure). Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> Button ($196) SB ($54.55) <font color="#C00000">BB ($22.56)</font> UTG ($102.35) <font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($0)</font> MP1 ($88) MP2 ($118.30) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($98.50)</font> CO ($51.05) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $5. Flop: ($16.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB calls $14.56 (All-In), Hero calls $14.56. Turn: ($45.62) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: ($45.62) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: $45.62 
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#2
11-09-2005, 09:20 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
It's too likely that that flop hit him somehow. I would let it go. I think your best case realistically is that he has an underpair and you're a 3-1 dog... you're not getting the price for it. He MIGHT have something like AT, but really I think you should just let this go.
Nice turn card though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#3
11-09-2005, 09:33 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
cannot call here getting 2 to 1 with a 3 card draw. nice turn. there are way too many ways to be beat here with raises and reraises preflop. knowing that there is 14.56 left behind him after his raise you should know before you call him preflop that on any action flop he is going to push though so in your defense you can just say you were going to call regardless of the flop, in which case i reraise preflop and try to win it there with aj heart if you were intent on playing that hand. and if hes a maniac i dont mind getting in here preflop with it but i dont see my self making that call on the flop. IMO
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#4
11-09-2005, 09:37 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
Let me re-iterate that villian is a maniac and will play any two from any position. Against most solid or sound opponents I fold this. I actually have little reason to believe this flop hit villian in some way. Change your opinion at all?
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#5
11-09-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
Pushing pre-flop did cross my mind and I was planning on calling most flop bets if it hit me in any way. Good post.
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#6
11-09-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
no only because you called his raise pf. i push pf with this hand against this maniac. your only 2 to 1 if he hit a 6 or has an underpair to the board and any maniac can have a king in his hand. just in my opinion i think its worth a fold at this point. if you feel this guy is enough of a maniac then you know the answer to your question
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#7
11-09-2005, 10:15 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
[ QUOTE ]
Let me re-iterate that villian is a maniac and will play any two from any position. Against most solid or sound opponents I fold this. I actually have little reason to believe this flop hit villian in some way. Change your opinion at all? [/ QUOTE ] Even if he's a maniac, I don't think you're ahead of his hand range enough to justify a call. That said, you're in a better position to make this judgement than I as you have been observing him and I haven't. But I would not make this call. Edit: And if he's really that much of a maniac, I have no problem with sticking it in preflop.
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#8
11-09-2005, 10:33 PM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
[ QUOTE ]
Villian is a bit of a maniac and I think he may be on tilt at this point. He just lost a big pot two hands ago. He'll play any two and raise pre-flop aggresively with them. I don't typically make this kind of call, but here's how I figured it and please correct me if I'm wrong. Best case for me: My Ace high is best (he's bluffing) Next best: He matched a 6 (so I'm ~40% to win) Next best: He has OESD or flush draw Next best: He has a King or Queen (I'm ~28% tp win) worst case: He has trips (I'm ~17% to win) So I assign a heavy percentage to first two categories and call here. Anyone else call here, or will the typical 'I'll wait for a better spot' come up for most players. I don't mind taking small edges so I think this is a good play, but I am slightly nuts. Side note: I usually raise more with this hand pre-flop (I think it was a misclick actually - not sure). Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> Button ($196) SB ($54.55) <font color="#C00000">BB ($22.56)</font> UTG ($102.35) <font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($0)</font> MP1 ($88) MP2 ($118.30) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($98.50)</font> CO ($51.05) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $5. Flop: ($16.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB calls $14.56 (All-In), Hero calls $14.56. Turn: ($45.62) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: ($45.62) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: $45.62 [/ QUOTE ] push preflop? he's got a 3rd of his stack in already and his range is v. wide according to your read. aside from hands that beat you he'll also call with a lot of dominated hands and pocket pairs < JJ.
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#9
11-10-2005, 12:21 AM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
I've done similar things against maniacs, like calling with an underpair to the board. Some have worked out, some have not. You made a read, then stuck with it - for that you should at least be commended. As you probably know this is not a call that should be made against all but the most aggressive opponent... it's up to you and you alone whether or not this is the case here.
(You probably need to be right a little less than 50% of the time here to be profitable, so you don't need to be POSITIVE that he's bluffing)
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#10
11-10-2005, 01:32 AM
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Re: Chip spewing or calculated call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Villian is a bit of a maniac and I think he may be on tilt at this point. He just lost a big pot two hands ago. He'll play any two and raise pre-flop aggresively with them. I don't typically make this kind of call, but here's how I figured it and please correct me if I'm wrong. Best case for me: My Ace high is best (he's bluffing) Next best: He matched a 6 (so I'm ~40% to win) Next best: He has OESD or flush draw Next best: He has a King or Queen (I'm ~28% tp win) worst case: He has trips (I'm ~17% to win) So I assign a heavy percentage to first two categories and call here. Anyone else call here, or will the typical 'I'll wait for a better spot' come up for most players. I don't mind taking small edges so I think this is a good play, but I am slightly nuts. Side note: I usually raise more with this hand pre-flop (I think it was a misclick actually - not sure). Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> Button ($196) SB ($54.55) <font color="#C00000">BB ($22.56)</font> UTG ($102.35) <font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($0)</font> MP1 ($88) MP2 ($118.30) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($98.50)</font> CO ($51.05) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $5. Flop: ($16.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB calls $14.56 (All-In), Hero calls $14.56. Turn: ($45.62) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> River: ($45.62) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font> Final Pot: $45.62 [/ QUOTE ] push preflop? he's got a 3rd of his stack in already and his range is v. wide according to your read. aside from hands that beat you he'll also call with a lot of dominated hands and pocket pairs < JJ. [/ QUOTE ] agreed, with this hand against this opponent you are making the right decision preflop rather than on the flop. preflop i agree with a push, post flop this is very very wreckless and i do not agree with it. you also said that he lost a big pot TWO HANDS AGO.. how much of a tilt is he really on?
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